Predictions › France › AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp

Ligue 2Fri 9 Oct, 18:00 France time

AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp prediction

Stade Marcel-Picot

AS Nancy LorraineHome

1.47 : 1.34

expected goals

GuingampAway

40%Nancy

27%Draw

34%Guingamp

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp is AS Nancy Lorraine to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: AS Nancy Lorraine to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AS Nancy Lorraine 1.5, Guingamp 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AS Nancy Lorraine 40%, the draw 27% and Guingamp 34%. The bookmakers agree and make AS Nancy Lorraine the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
AS Nancy Lorraine took 9 points from their last 5 games and Guingamp took 5 from 5. AS Nancy Lorraine come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AS Nancy Lorraine won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Guingamp won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AS Nancy Lorraine score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.5. Guingamp score 0.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of AS Nancy Lorraine games and 9 of Guingamp games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AS Nancy Lorraine won 0 and Guingamp won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended AS Nancy Lorraine 0, Guingamp 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nancyrecent form+1%
Guingamprecent form-1%

Nancy form W L L W WGuingamp form L W D D LHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp: AS Nancy Lorraine shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AS Nancy Lorraine host Guingamp in the Ligue 2 on Fri 9 Oct, 18:00 at Stade Marcel-Picot. Our prediction for AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp is AS Nancy Lorraine to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

AS Nancy Lorraine form

AS Nancy Lorraine have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Guingamp form

Guingamp have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AS Nancy Lorraine won 0, Guingamp won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AS Nancy Lorraine 0, Guingamp 3.

Our call

We expect AS Nancy Lorraine to score about 1.5 goals and Guingamp about 1.3. That points to AS Nancy Lorraine to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Nancy	Guingamp
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	3
Draws	7	7
Losses	7	10
Goals scored	25	19
Goals conceded	30	28
Scored per game	1.3	0.9
Conceded per game	1.5	1.4
Home record	3W 2D 5L	3W 3D 4L
Away record	3W 5D 2L	0W 4D 6L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AS Nancy Lorraine to win	37%	2.73	2.20	-19.3%
A Draw	26%	3.88	3.45	-11.1%
Guingamp to win	32%	3.12	2.95	-5.4%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.97	1.69	-14.2%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.33	2.00	-14.1%
AS Nancy Lorraine -0.5	39%	2.56	2.10	-18.0%
Guingamp +0.5	55%	1.83	1.61	-12.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.88
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.23
Both teams to score	58%	1.74
AS Nancy Lorraine or Draw	66%	1.51
Guingamp or Draw	60%	1.65
AS Nancy Lorraine to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.01
Guingamp to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.75
AS Nancy Lorraine clean sheet	26%	3.82
Guingamp clean sheet	23%	4.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%

2-18.7%

1-08.1%

1-28.0%

0-17.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp?

Our prediction for AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp is AS Nancy Lorraine to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect AS Nancy Lorraine to score 1.5 goals and Guingamp 1.3.

Will both teams score in AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of AS Nancy Lorraine last 20 games and 11 of Guingamp last 20.

How are AS Nancy Lorraine playing?

How are Guingamp playing?

What happened when AS Nancy Lorraine and Guingamp last met?

It ended AS Nancy Lorraine 0, Guingamp 3. In the last 2 meetings AS Nancy Lorraine won 0 and Guingamp won 1.

What is the best bet for AS Nancy Lorraine vs Guingamp?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nancy against Guingamp. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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