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Predictions › Italy › Ascoli vs Empoli
Serie BSat 17 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Ascoli vs Empoli prediction

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

AscoliHome
1.63 : 0.96
expected goals
EmpoliAway
52%Ascoli
26%Draw
22%Empoli
Eagle safe pickAscoli or Draw
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ascoli vs Empoli is Ascoli to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction
Ascoli to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Ascoli 1.6, Empoli 1.0
Best bet
Ascoli or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Ascoli or Draw
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ascoli to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ascoli 52%, the draw 26% and Empoli 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ascoli took 10 points from their last 5 games and Empoli took 6 from 5. Ascoli come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Ascoli won 2 of their last 3 games at home. Empoli won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Ascoli score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.8. Empoli score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of Ascoli games and 9 of Empoli games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Ascoli or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ascolirecent form+3%
  • Empolirecent form-1%
Ascoli form W L W D WEmpoli form L L W L WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ascoli vs Empoli: Ascoli are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ascoli host Empoli in the Serie B on Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Our prediction for Ascoli vs Empoli is Ascoli to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.31.

Ascoli form

Ascoli have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 games, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Empoli form

Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Ascoli to score about 1.6 goals and Empoli about 1.0. That points to Ascoli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is Ascoli to win and Over 2.5 at 3.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AscoliEmpoli
Games played520
Wins34
Draws17
Losses19
Goals scored723
Goals conceded429
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game0.81.4
Home record2W 1D 0L3W 4D 2L
Away record1W 0D 1L1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.84
Both teams to score50%1.99
Ascoli or Draw78%1.27
Empoli or Draw48%2.09
Ascoli to win and Over 2.531%3.25
Empoli to win and Over 2.512%8.65
Ascoli clean sheet38%2.61
Empoli clean sheet20%5.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-011.6%
2-010.0%
2-19.6%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ascoli vs Empoli?

Our prediction for Ascoli vs Empoli is Ascoli to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Ascoli vs Empoli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Ascoli to score 1.6 goals and Empoli 1.0.

Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Empoli?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of Ascoli last 5 games and 13 of Empoli last 20.

How are Ascoli playing?

Ascoli have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 games, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Empoli playing?

Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Ascoli vs Empoli?

Ascoli or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ascoli against Empoli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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