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Predictions › Italy › Ascoli vs US Avellino
Serie BSat 19 Sept, 17:30 Italy time

Ascoli vs US Avellino prediction

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

AscoliHome
1.21 : 0.90
expected goals
US AvellinoAway
42%Ascoli
31%Draw
27%Avellino
Eagle safe pickAscoli or Draw
1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ascoli vs US Avellino is Ascoli to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.34.

Prediction
Ascoli to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Ascoli 1.2, US Avellino 0.9
Best bet
Ascoli or Draw at 1.34
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Ascoli or Draw
74% chanceFair price 1.341 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.141 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Ascoli 42%, the draw 31% and US Avellino 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Ascoli took 7 points from their last 4 games and US Avellino took 9 from 5. US Avellino come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Ascoli score 1.0 goals a game and let in 0.8. US Avellino score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of Ascoli games and 9 of US Avellino games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Ascoli or Draw has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Avellinorecent form-1%
  • Ascolirest between games-5%
Ascoli form L W D W LAvellino form W W L L LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ascoli vs US Avellino: Ascoli shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ascoli host US Avellino in the Serie B on Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Our prediction for Ascoli vs US Avellino is Ascoli to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.34.

Ascoli form

Ascoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 4 games, with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses from 2. Their last 4 results read L, W, D, W, newest first.

US Avellino form

US Avellino have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Ascoli to score about 1.2 goals and US Avellino about 0.9. That points to Ascoli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.14.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AscoliAvellino
Games played420
Wins28
Draws13
Losses19
Goals scored421
Goals conceded325
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game0.81.3
Home record1W 1D 0L5W 2D 3L
Away record1W 0D 1L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets25%35%
Both teams scored50%40%
Over 2.5 goals25%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.59
Over 2.5 goals35%2.84
Over 3.5 goals16%6.14
Both teams to score42%2.36
Ascoli or Draw73%1.36
US Avellino or Draw58%1.74
Ascoli to win and Over 2.520%5.09
US Avellino to win and Over 2.512%8.65
Ascoli clean sheet41%2.46
US Avellino clean sheet30%3.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-013.9%
0-012.9%
0-110.1%
2-08.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ascoli vs US Avellino?

Our prediction for Ascoli vs US Avellino is Ascoli to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Ascoli vs US Avellino?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Ascoli to score 1.2 goals and US Avellino 0.9.

Will both teams score in Ascoli vs US Avellino?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Ascoli last 4 games and 8 of US Avellino last 20.

How are Ascoli playing?

Ascoli have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 4 games, with 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses from 2. Their last 4 results read L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are US Avellino playing?

US Avellino have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Ascoli vs US Avellino?

Ascoli or Draw at 1.34, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ascoli against Avellino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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