Predictions › Italy › Ascoli vs Vicenza

Serie BSat 21 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Ascoli vs Vicenza prediction

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

AscoliHome

1.74 : 1.06

expected goals

VicenzaAway

53%Ascoli

25%Draw

22%Vicenza

Eagle safe pickAscoli or Draw

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ascoli vs Vicenza is Ascoli to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction: Ascoli to win
Chance: 53%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Ascoli 1.7, Vicenza 1.1
Best bet: Ascoli or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Ascoli or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ascoli to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.041 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Ascoli 53%, the draw 25% and Vicenza 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Ascoli the favourite at 1.87.
2
Recent form
Ascoli took 9 points from their last 5 games and Vicenza took 4 from 5. Ascoli come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Ascoli won 3 of their last 6 games at home. Vicenza won 1 of their last 6 on the road.
4
Goals
Ascoli score 1.5 goals a game and let in 0.6. Vicenza score 1.3 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Ascoli games and 9 of Vicenza games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Ascoli or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Ascolirecent form+3%
Vicenzarecent form-3%

Ascoli form D D W W DVicenza form L L L W DHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ascoli vs Vicenza: Ascoli are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Ascoli host Vicenza in the Serie B on Sat 21 Nov, 14:00 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Our prediction for Ascoli vs Vicenza is Ascoli to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.29.

Ascoli form

Ascoli have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 11 games, with 17 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Vicenza form

Vicenza have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 11 games, with 14 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Ascoli to score about 1.7 goals and Vicenza about 1.1. That points to Ascoli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is Ascoli to win and Over 2.5 at 3.04.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 11 games in all competitions.

	Ascoli	Vicenza
Games played	11	11
Wins	5	2
Draws	5	3
Losses	1	6
Goals scored	17	14
Goals conceded	7	24
Scored per game	1.5	1.3
Conceded per game	0.6	2.2
Home record	3W 3D 0L	1W 1D 3L
Away record	2W 2D 1L	1W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	36%	9%
Both teams scored	55%	73%
Over 2.5 goals	27%	82%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Ascoli to win	48%	2.06	1.87	-9.4%
A Draw	24%	4.09	3.35	-18.1%
Vicenza to win	22%	4.61	4.10	-11.1%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.05	1.71	-16.3%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.26	1.95	-13.7%
Ascoli -0.5	48%	2.10	1.77	-15.9%
Vicenza +0.5	45%	2.20	1.83	-16.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.89
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.26
Both teams to score	54%	1.84
Ascoli or Draw	78%	1.29
Vicenza or Draw	47%	2.11
Ascoli to win and Over 2.5	33%	2.99
Vicenza to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.60
Ascoli clean sheet	35%	2.88
Vicenza clean sheet	18%	5.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

1-09.9%

2-19.8%

2-09.2%

0-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ascoli vs Vicenza?

Our prediction for Ascoli vs Vicenza is Ascoli to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Ascoli or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Ascoli vs Vicenza?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Ascoli to score 1.7 goals and Vicenza 1.1.

Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Vicenza?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Ascoli last 11 games and 8 of Vicenza last 11.

How are Ascoli playing?

How are Vicenza playing?

What is the best bet for Ascoli vs Vicenza?

Ascoli or Draw at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Ascoli against Vicenza. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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