Predictions › Greece › Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens

Greek Super LeagueSun 13 Sept, 16:00 Greece time

Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens prediction

Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium

Asteras TripoliHome

0.73 : 1.90

expected goals

AEK AthensAway

13%Asteras Trip

22%Draw

65%AEK Athens

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: AEK Athens to win
Chance: 65%
Most likely score: 0-1
Expected goals: Asteras Tripoli 0.7, AEK Athens 1.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AEK Athens to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Asteras Tripoli 13%, the draw 22% and AEK Athens 65%. The bookmakers agree and make AEK Athens the favourite at 1.38.
2
Recent form
Asteras Tripoli took 4 points from their last 5 games and AEK Athens took 11 from 5. AEK Athens come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Asteras Tripoli won 5 of their last 11 games at home. AEK Athens won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Asteras Tripoli score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. AEK Athens score 1.9 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Asteras Tripoli games and 11 of AEK Athens games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Asteras Tripoli won 0 and AEK Athens won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Asteras Tripoli 0, AEK Athens 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Asteras Triprecent form-3%
AEK Athensrecent form+6%

Asteras Trip form L L L W DAEK Athens form W W D W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens: AEK Athens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Asteras Tripoli host AEK Athens in the Greek Super League on Sun 13 Sept, 16:00 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium. Our prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Asteras Tripoli form

Asteras Tripoli have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

AEK Athens form

AEK Athens have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Asteras Tripoli won 0, AEK Athens won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Asteras Tripoli 0, AEK Athens 1.

Our call

We expect Asteras Tripoli to score about 0.7 goals and AEK Athens about 1.9. That points to AEK Athens to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is AEK Athens to win and Over 2.5 at 2.82.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Asteras Trip	AEK Athens
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	11
Draws	5	7
Losses	9	2
Goals scored	21	38
Goals conceded	25	14
Scored per game	1.1	1.9
Conceded per game	1.3	0.7
Home record	5W 1D 5L	9W 1D 1L
Away record	1W 4D 4L	2W 6D 1L
Clean sheets	25%	55%
Both teams scored	55%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Asteras Tripoli to win	11%	8.99	8.50	-5.5%
A Draw	21%	4.82	4.70	-2.6%
AEK Athens to win	65%	1.53	1.38	-9.9%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	1.99	1.80	-9.8%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.11	1.95	-7.5%
Asteras Tripoli +1.5	58%	1.74	1.67	-4.0%
AEK Athens -1.5	40%	2.51	2.10	-16.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.68
Both teams to score	45%	2.24
Asteras Tripoli or Draw	35%	2.82
AEK Athens or Draw	87%	1.15
Asteras Tripoli to win and Over 2.5	6%	15.53
AEK Athens to win and Over 2.5	39%	2.60
Asteras Tripoli clean sheet	15%	6.71
AEK Athens clean sheet	48%	2.08

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-113.1%

0-213.0%

1-110.6%

1-29.5%

0-38.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens?

Our prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens is AEK Athens to win, with a 65% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-2 and 1-1. We expect Asteras Tripoli to score 0.7 goals and AEK Athens 1.9.

Will both teams score in Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Asteras Tripoli last 20 games and 7 of AEK Athens last 20.

How are Asteras Tripoli playing?

How are AEK Athens playing?

What happened when Asteras Tripoli and AEK Athens last met?

It ended Asteras Tripoli 0, AEK Athens 1. In the last 1 meeting Asteras Tripoli won 0 and AEK Athens won 1.

What is the best bet for Asteras Tripoli vs AEK Athens?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Asteras Trip against AEK Athens. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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