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Predictions › Greece › Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos
Greek Super LeagueSat 10 Oct, 16:30 Greece time

Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos prediction

Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium

Asteras TripoliHome
1.18 : 1.14
expected goals
AtromitosAway
36%Asteras Trip
30%Draw
34%Atromitos
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos is Asteras Tripoli to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Asteras Tripoli to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Asteras Tripoli 1.2, Atromitos 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atromitos to win
32% chancePrice 3.051 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Asteras Tripoli 36%, the draw 30% and Atromitos 34%. The bookmakers agree and make Asteras Tripoli the favourite at 2.35.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Asteras Tripoli took 2 points from their last 5 games and Atromitos took 2 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Asteras Tripoli won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Atromitos won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Asteras Tripoli score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Atromitos score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Asteras Tripoli games and 12 of Atromitos games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Asteras Tripoli won 2 and Atromitos won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Asteras Tripoli 4, Atromitos 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Asteras Triprecent form-4%
  • Atromitosrecent form-4%
Asteras Trip form D D L L LAtromitos form L D D L LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos: Asteras Tripoli shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Asteras Tripoli host Atromitos in the Greek Super League on Sat 10 Oct, 16:30 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium. Our prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos is Asteras Tripoli to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Asteras Tripoli form

Asteras Tripoli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Atromitos form

Atromitos have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Asteras Tripoli won 2, Atromitos won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Asteras Tripoli 4, Atromitos 2.

Our call

We expect Asteras Tripoli to score about 1.2 goals and Atromitos about 1.1. That points to Asteras Tripoli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Atromitos to win at 3.05.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Asteras TripAtromitos
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws76
Losses87
Goals scored2132
Goals conceded2523
Scored per game1.11.6
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record4W 2D 5L4W 3D 3L
Away record1W 5D 3L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Asteras Tripoli to win34%2.932.35-19.8%
A Draw29%3.473.05-12.2%
Atromitos to win32%3.083.05-0.9%
Over 2.5 goals39%2.582.20-14.7%
Under 2.5 goals55%1.821.59-12.7%
Asteras Tripoli -0.537%2.712.20-18.8%
Atromitos +0.558%1.741.53-12.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.46
Over 2.5 goals41%2.43
Over 3.5 goals21%4.85
Both teams to score48%2.08
Asteras Tripoli or Draw66%1.52
Atromitos or Draw64%1.57
Asteras Tripoli to win and Over 2.519%5.40
Atromitos to win and Over 2.517%5.75
Asteras Tripoli clean sheet32%3.14
Atromitos clean sheet31%3.27

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
1-010.8%
0-010.6%
0-110.4%
2-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos?

Our prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos is Asteras Tripoli to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Asteras Tripoli to score 1.2 goals and Atromitos 1.1.

Will both teams score in Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Asteras Tripoli last 20 games and 12 of Atromitos last 20.

How are Asteras Tripoli playing?

Asteras Tripoli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Atromitos playing?

Atromitos have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Asteras Tripoli and Atromitos last met?

It ended Asteras Tripoli 4, Atromitos 2. In the last 4 meetings Asteras Tripoli won 2 and Atromitos won 2.

What is the best bet for Asteras Tripoli vs Atromitos?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Asteras Trip against Atromitos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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