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Predictions › United Kingdom › Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Premier LeagueSat 21 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction

Villa Park

Aston VillaHome
1.82 : 1.11
expected goals
SunderlandAway
53%Aston Villa
24%Draw
22%Sunderland
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland is Aston Villa to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Aston Villa to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Aston Villa 1.8, Sunderland 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 15/81 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Aston Villa 53%, the draw 24% and Sunderland 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Aston Villa the favourite at 8/11.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Aston Villa took 5 points from their last 5 games and Sunderland took 7 from 5. Sunderland come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Aston Villa won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Sunderland won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Aston Villa score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Sunderland score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Aston Villa games and 7 of Sunderland games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Aston Villa won 1 and Sunderland won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Aston Villa 4, Sunderland 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aston Villarecent form-1%
Aston Villa form D L D L WSunderland form W L L W DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aston Villa vs Sunderland: Aston Villa are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aston Villa host Sunderland in the Premier League on Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 at Villa Park. Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland is Aston Villa to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Sunderland form

Sunderland have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Aston Villa won 1, Sunderland won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Aston Villa 4, Sunderland 3.

Our call

We expect Aston Villa to score about 1.8 goals and Sunderland about 1.1. That points to Aston Villa to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Aston Villa to win and Over 2.5 at 15/8.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Aston VillaSunderland
Games played2020
Wins108
Draws55
Losses57
Goals scored4022
Goals conceded3226
Scored per game2.01.1
Conceded per game1.61.3
Home record4W 2D 2L6W 2D 3L
Away record6W 3D 3L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals80%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Aston Villa to win49%21/208/11-14.6%
A Draw24%10/311/4-10.3%
Sunderland to win22%7/210/3-4.7%
Over 2.5 goals50%Evens8/11-13.5%
Under 2.5 goals43%5/4Evens-13.3%
Aston Villa -0.550%Evens4/6-17.3%
Sunderland +0.543%5/4Evens-13.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals56%4/5
Over 3.5 goals34%2/1
Both teams to score57%8/11
Aston Villa or Draw78%2/7
Sunderland or Draw47%11/10
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.536%9/5
Sunderland to win and Over 2.514%6/1
Aston Villa clean sheet33%2/1
Sunderland clean sheet16%5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.8%
1-09.0%
2-08.8%
1-26.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Unai Emery Explains Early Exit After Aston Villa Draw at Manchester United

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery defended walking off early after Manchester United fought back to draw 4-4 at Old Trafford.

9 Nov 2026
Premier League

Manchester United Suffer Record Fast Deficit Against Aston Villa

Manchester United fell 2-0 behind against Aston Villa in under four minutes, marking their fastest two goal deficit in Premier League history.

8 Nov 2026
Premier League

Unai Emery Compares Manchester United Challenge to Barcelona

Unai Emery insists Manchester United are on the same level as Barcelona as Aston Villa prepare for a trip to Old Trafford.

7 Nov 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Our prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland is Aston Villa to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Aston Villa to score 1.8 goals and Sunderland 1.1.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Aston Villa last 20 games and 10 of Sunderland last 20.

How are Aston Villa playing?

Aston Villa have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Sunderland playing?

Sunderland have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Aston Villa and Sunderland last met?

It ended Aston Villa 4, Sunderland 3. In the last 2 meetings Aston Villa won 1 and Sunderland won 0.

What is the best bet for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aston Villa against Sunderland. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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