EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Italy › Atalanta vs Frosinone
Serie ASun 25 Oct, 14:00 Italy time

Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction

New Balance Arena

AtalantaHome
1.92 : 1.10
expected goals
FrosinoneAway
56%Atalanta
23%Draw
21%Frosinone
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Frosinone is Atalanta to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Atalanta to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atalanta 1.9, Frosinone 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atalanta to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atalanta 56%, the draw 23% and Frosinone 21%. The bookmakers agree and make Atalanta the favourite at 1.59.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atalanta took 6 points from their last 5 games and Frosinone took 10 from 5. Frosinone come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atalanta won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Frosinone won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atalanta score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Frosinone score 2.0 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Atalanta games and 13 of Frosinone games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atalantarecent form-3%
  • Frosinonerecent form+1%
Atalanta form D L L L WFrosinone form D W D W LHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atalanta vs Frosinone: Atalanta are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atalanta host Frosinone in the Serie A on Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 at New Balance Arena. Our prediction for Atalanta vs Frosinone is Atalanta to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Atalanta form

Atalanta have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Frosinone form

Frosinone have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atalanta to score about 1.9 goals and Frosinone about 1.1. That points to Atalanta to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Atalanta to win and Over 2.5 at 2.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtalantaFrosinone
Games played2020
Wins612
Draws56
Losses92
Goals scored2541
Goals conceded3219
Scored per game1.32.0
Conceded per game1.60.9
Home record4W 2D 4L7W 3D 1L
Away record2W 3D 5L5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets20%40%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Atalanta to win53%1.901.59-16.5%
A Draw22%4.574.00-12.4%
Frosinone to win20%5.104.50-11.7%
Over 3.5 goals42%2.372.10-11.3%
Under 3.5 goals54%1.841.67-9.5%
Atalanta -0.554%1.861.56-16.6%
Frosinone +0.543%2.332.15-7.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.72
Over 3.5 goals36%2.80
Both teams to score58%1.74
Atalanta or Draw79%1.26
Frosinone or Draw44%2.27
Atalanta to win and Over 2.538%2.62
Frosinone to win and Over 2.513%7.66
Atalanta clean sheet33%3.00
Frosinone clean sheet15%6.83

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%
2-19.9%
2-09.0%
1-08.8%
3-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Frosinone is Atalanta to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Atalanta vs Frosinone?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Atalanta to score 1.9 goals and Frosinone 1.1.

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Atalanta last 20 games and 10 of Frosinone last 20.

How are Atalanta playing?

Atalanta have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Frosinone playing?

Frosinone have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Atalanta vs Frosinone?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atalanta against Frosinone. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.