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Predictions › Conference League › Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
Conference LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction

New Balance Arena

AtalantaHome
1.88 : 1.27
expected goals
Kairat AlmatyAway
51%Atalanta
24%Draw
25%Kairat Almaty
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty is Atalanta to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Atalanta to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atalanta 1.9, Kairat Almaty 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atalanta to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atalanta 51%, the draw 24% and Kairat Almaty 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atalanta took 7 points from their last 5 games and Kairat Almaty took 1 from 5. Atalanta come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atalanta won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Kairat Almaty won 0 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atalanta score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Kairat Almaty score 0.9 and let in 2.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Atalanta games and 7 of Kairat Almaty games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Kairat Almatyrecent form-4%
  • Atalantarest between games-5%
Atalanta form D L L W WKairat Almaty form D D L L LHome edge in this league 36% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: Atalanta are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in the Conference League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at New Balance Arena. Our prediction for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty is Atalanta to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Atalanta form

Atalanta have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Kairat Almaty form

Kairat Almaty have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 10 games, with 9 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atalanta to score about 1.9 goals and Kairat Almaty about 1.3. That points to Atalanta to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Atalanta to win and Over 2.5 at 2.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtalantaKairat Almaty
Games played2010
Wins70
Draws42
Losses98
Goals scored299
Goals conceded3128
Scored per game1.40.9
Conceded per game1.62.8
Home record5W 2D 3L0W 1D 4L
Away record2W 2D 6L0W 1D 4L
Clean sheets20%10%
Both teams scored60%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.64
Over 3.5 goals39%2.59
Both teams to score61%1.63
Atalanta or Draw75%1.34
Kairat Almaty or Draw49%2.04
Atalanta to win and Over 2.536%2.77
Kairat Almaty to win and Over 2.517%5.93
Atalanta clean sheet28%3.55
Kairat Almaty clean sheet15%6.55

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%
2-19.6%
2-07.6%
1-07.5%
1-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty is Atalanta to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Atalanta to score 1.9 goals and Kairat Almaty 1.3.

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Atalanta last 20 games and 7 of Kairat Almaty last 10.

How are Atalanta playing?

Atalanta have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Kairat Almaty playing?

Kairat Almaty have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses in their last 10 games, with 9 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atalanta against Kairat Almaty. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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