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Predictions › Conference League › Atalanta vs Pafos
Conference LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Atalanta vs Pafos prediction

New Balance Arena

AtalantaHome
1.96 : 0.96
expected goals
PafosAway
60%Atalanta
23%Draw
17%Pafos
Eagle safe pickAtalanta or Draw
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Pafos is Atalanta to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction
Atalanta to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atalanta 2.0, Pafos 1.0
Best bet
Atalanta or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atalanta or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atalanta to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 2.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atalanta 60%, the draw 23% and Pafos 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Atalanta the favourite at 1.49.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atalanta took 6 points from their last 5 games and Pafos took 7 from 5. Pafos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atalanta won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Pafos won 0 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atalanta score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Pafos score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Atalanta games and 3 of Pafos games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Atalanta or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atalantarecent form-1%
  • Pafosrecent form+1%
  • Pafosrest between games-3%
Atalanta form L L L W WPafos form W D D L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atalanta vs Pafos: Atalanta are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atalanta host Pafos in the Conference League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at New Balance Arena. Our prediction for Atalanta vs Pafos is Atalanta to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.25.

Atalanta form

Atalanta have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Pafos form

Pafos have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 8 games, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atalanta to score about 2.0 goals and Pafos about 1.0. That points to Atalanta to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is Atalanta to win and Over 2.5 at 2.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtalantaPafos
Games played208
Wins62
Draws53
Losses93
Goals scored268
Goals conceded3211
Scored per game1.31.0
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record4W 2D 4L2W 1D 1L
Away record2W 3D 5L0W 2D 2L
Clean sheets20%38%
Both teams scored65%38%
Over 2.5 goals55%38%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Atalanta to win57%1.741.49-14.7%
A Draw22%4.474.40-1.6%
Pafos to win17%5.885.75-2.1%
Over 2.5 goals56%1.801.56-13.5%
Under 2.5 goals39%2.572.30-10.5%
Atalanta -1.537%2.672.20-17.7%
Pafos +1.558%1.731.54-11.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.79
Over 3.5 goals33%3.00
Both teams to score54%1.87
Atalanta or Draw83%1.21
Pafos or Draw40%2.50
Atalanta to win and Over 2.540%2.52
Pafos to win and Over 2.510%9.76
Atalanta clean sheet38%2.61
Pafos clean sheet14%7.07

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%
2-010.4%
1-010.0%
2-19.9%
3-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Pafos is Atalanta to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atalanta or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Atalanta vs Pafos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-0. We expect Atalanta to score 2.0 goals and Pafos 1.0.

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Pafos?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Atalanta last 20 games and 3 of Pafos last 8.

How are Atalanta playing?

Atalanta have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Pafos playing?

Pafos have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 8 games, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Atalanta vs Pafos?

Atalanta or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atalanta against Pafos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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