Predictions › Spain › Athletic Club vs Espanyol

LaLigaFri 20 Nov, 20:00 Spain time

Athletic Club vs Espanyol prediction

San Mamés

Athletic ClubHome

1.82 : 0.88

expected goals

EspanyolAway

59%Athletic

24%Draw

17%Espanyol

Eagle safe pickAthletic Club or Draw

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Espanyol is Athletic Club to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Athletic Club or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction: Athletic Club to win
Chance: 59%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.8, Espanyol 0.9
Best bet: Athletic Club or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Athletic Club or Draw

83% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5

36% chanceFair price 2.811 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Athletic Club 59%, the draw 24% and Espanyol 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Athletic Club the favourite at 1.48.
2
Recent form
Athletic Club took 8 points from their last 5 games and Espanyol took 5 from 5. Athletic Club come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Athletic Club won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Espanyol won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Athletic Club score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Espanyol score 1.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Athletic Club games and 9 of Espanyol games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Athletic Club won 0 and Espanyol won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Espanyol 2, Athletic Club 0.
6
The safest bet
Athletic Club or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Athleticrecent form+3%
Espanyolrecent form-3%

Athletic form D W W W LEspanyol form D W L L LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Athletic Club vs Espanyol: Athletic Club are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Athletic Club host Espanyol in the LaLiga on Fri 20 Nov, 20:00 at San Mamés. Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Espanyol is Athletic Club to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Athletic Club or Draw at 1.21.

Athletic Club form

Athletic Club have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Espanyol form

Espanyol have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Athletic Club won 0, Espanyol won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Espanyol 2, Athletic Club 0.

Our call

We expect Athletic Club to score about 1.8 goals and Espanyol about 0.9. That points to Athletic Club to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Athletic Club or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5 at 2.81.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Athletic	Espanyol
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	5	5
Losses	9	10
Goals scored	26	20
Goals conceded	28	25
Scored per game	1.3	1.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	4W 3D 3L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Athletic Club to win	53%	1.88	1.48	-21.4%
A Draw	23%	4.30	4.30	+0.0%
Espanyol to win	16%	6.20	6.50	+4.9%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.06	1.74	-15.6%
Under 2.5 goals	45%	2.24	2.00	-10.8%
Athletic Club -1.5	38%	2.66	2.25	-15.4%
Espanyol +1.5	57%	1.77	1.51	-14.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.97
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.50
Both teams to score	50%	2.02
Athletic Club or Draw	83%	1.21
Espanyol or Draw	41%	2.44
Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5	36%	2.75
Espanyol to win and Over 2.5	9%	10.86
Athletic Club clean sheet	42%	2.40
Espanyol clean sheet	16%	6.19

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-011.6%

1-111.4%

2-011.2%

2-19.8%

0-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Athletic Club vs Espanyol?

Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Espanyol is Athletic Club to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Athletic Club or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Athletic Club vs Espanyol?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Athletic Club to score 1.8 goals and Espanyol 0.9.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Espanyol?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Athletic Club last 20 games and 11 of Espanyol last 20.

How are Athletic Club playing?

How are Espanyol playing?

What happened when Athletic Club and Espanyol last met?

It ended Espanyol 2, Athletic Club 0. In the last 2 meetings Athletic Club won 0 and Espanyol won 2.

What is the best bet for Athletic Club vs Espanyol?

Athletic Club or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Athletic against Espanyol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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