Predictions › Spain › Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

LaLigaSun 1 Nov, 20:00 Spain time

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction

San Mamés

Athletic ClubHome

1.52 : 1.21

expected goals

Real SociedadAway

44%Athletic

27%Draw

30%Real Sociedad

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad is Athletic Club to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Athletic Club to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.5, Real Sociedad 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Real Sociedad to win

28% chancePrice 3.60+1.7% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Athletic Club 44%, the draw 27% and Real Sociedad 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Athletic Club the favourite at 1.95.
2
Recent form
Athletic Club took 6 points from their last 5 games and Real Sociedad took 13 from 5. Real Sociedad come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Athletic Club won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Real Sociedad won 4 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Athletic Club score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Real Sociedad score 1.9 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Athletic Club games and 13 of Real Sociedad games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Athletic Club won 0 and Real Sociedad won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Athletic Club 1, Real Sociedad 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Athleticrecent form+1%
Real Sociedadrecent form+4%
Athleticrest between games-5%
Real Sociedadrest between games-5%

Athletic form D D D D WReal Sociedad form D W D W WHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: Athletic Club shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Athletic Club host Real Sociedad in the LaLiga on Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 at San Mamés. Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad is Athletic Club to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Athletic Club form

Athletic Club have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, W, newest first.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Athletic Club won 0, Real Sociedad won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Athletic Club 1, Real Sociedad 1.

Our call

We expect Athletic Club to score about 1.5 goals and Real Sociedad about 1.2. That points to Athletic Club to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Real Sociedad to win at 3.60.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Athletic	Real Sociedad
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	6
Draws	4	7
Losses	11	7
Goals scored	21	38
Goals conceded	31	36
Scored per game	1.1	1.9
Conceded per game	1.6	1.8
Home record	3W 3D 4L	2W 3D 4L
Away record	2W 1D 7L	4W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	10%
Both teams scored	45%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Athletic Club to win	43%	2.32	1.95	-15.8%
A Draw	26%	3.90	3.55	-8.9%
Real Sociedad to win	28%	3.54	3.60	+1.7%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.06	1.80	-12.8%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.15	1.91	-11.3%
Athletic Club -0.5	45%	2.20	1.87	-14.9%
Real Sociedad +0.5	49%	2.02	1.77	-12.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.95
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.43
Both teams to score	55%	1.80
Athletic Club or Draw	70%	1.42
Real Sociedad or Draw	56%	1.78
Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.71
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.69
Athletic Club clean sheet	30%	3.35
Real Sociedad clean sheet	22%	4.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%

1-09.2%

2-19.1%

2-07.5%

0-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad is Athletic Club to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Athletic Club to score 1.5 goals and Real Sociedad 1.2.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Athletic Club last 20 games and 14 of Real Sociedad last 20.

How are Athletic Club playing?

How are Real Sociedad playing?

What happened when Athletic Club and Real Sociedad last met?

It ended Athletic Club 1, Real Sociedad 1. In the last 2 meetings Athletic Club won 0 and Real Sociedad won 1.

What is the best bet for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Athletic against Real Sociedad. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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