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Predictions › Brazil › Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras
BrasileiraoSat 17 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras prediction

Arena da Baixada

Athletico-PRHome
1.19 : 1.25
expected goals
PalmeirasAway
34%Athletico-PR
29%Draw
37%Palmeiras
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Palmeiras to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Athletico-PR 1.2, Palmeiras 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Athletico-PR 34%, the draw 29% and Palmeiras 37%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Athletico-PR took 8 points from their last 5 games and Palmeiras took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Athletico-PR won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Palmeiras won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Athletico-PR score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Palmeiras score 1.6 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Athletico-PR games and 8 of Palmeiras games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Athletico-PR won 0 and Palmeiras won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Palmeiras 1, Athletico-PR 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Athletico-PRrecent form+1%
  • Palmeirasrecent form+1%
Athletico-PR form W D L D WPalmeiras form D L W W DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras: Palmeiras shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Athletico-PR host Palmeiras in the Brasileirao on Sat 17 Oct, 22:30 at Arena da Baixada. Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Athletico-PR won 0, Palmeiras won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Palmeiras 1, Athletico-PR 0.

Our call

We expect Athletico-PR to score about 1.2 goals and Palmeiras about 1.3. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Athletico-PRPalmeiras
Games played2020
Wins99
Draws67
Losses54
Goals scored2932
Goals conceded2416
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.20.8
Home record5W 4D 0L5W 3D 2L
Away record4W 2D 5L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets30%45%
Both teams scored55%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.41
Over 2.5 goals44%2.26
Over 3.5 goals23%4.33
Both teams to score51%1.98
Athletico-PR or Draw63%1.59
Palmeiras or Draw66%1.52
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.518%5.43
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.520%4.98
Athletico-PR clean sheet29%3.49
Palmeiras clean sheet30%3.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
0-110.1%
1-09.6%
0-09.4%
1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?

Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras is Palmeiras to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Athletico-PR to score 1.2 goals and Palmeiras 1.3.

Will both teams score in Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Athletico-PR last 20 games and 10 of Palmeiras last 20.

How are Athletico-PR playing?

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Palmeiras playing?

Palmeiras have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Athletico-PR and Palmeiras last met?

It ended Palmeiras 1, Athletico-PR 0. In the last 1 meeting Athletico-PR won 0 and Palmeiras won 1.

What is the best bet for Athletico-PR vs Palmeiras?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Athletico-PR against Palmeiras. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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