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Predictions › Brazil › Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama
BrasileiraoWed 4 Nov, 22:30 Brazil time

Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama prediction

Arena da Baixada

Athletico-PRHome
1.64 : 0.87
expected goals
Vasco da GamaAway
55%Athletico-PR
26%Draw
19%Vasco
Eagle safe pickAthletico-PR or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama is Athletico-PR to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Athletico-PR or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
Athletico-PR to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Athletico-PR 1.6, Vasco da Gama 0.9
Best bet
Athletico-PR or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Athletico-PR or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.361 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Athletico-PR 55%, the draw 26% and Vasco da Gama 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Athletico-PR took 8 points from their last 5 games and Vasco da Gama took 10 from 5. Vasco da Gama come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Athletico-PR won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Vasco da Gama won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Athletico-PR score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Vasco da Gama score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Athletico-PR games and 11 of Vasco da Gama games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Athletico-PR won 0 and Vasco da Gama won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vasco da Gama 1, Athletico-PR 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Athletico-PR or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Athletico-PRrecent form+1%
  • Vascorecent form-1%
  • Athletico-PRrest between games-5%
  • Vascorest between games-5%
Athletico-PR form D L W D WVasco form D L L W DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama: Athletico-PR are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Athletico-PR host Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirao on Wed 4 Nov, 22:30 at Arena da Baixada. Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama is Athletico-PR to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Athletico-PR or Draw at 1.23.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Athletico-PR won 0, Vasco da Gama won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vasco da Gama 1, Athletico-PR 0.

Our call

We expect Athletico-PR to score about 1.6 goals and Vasco da Gama about 0.9. That points to Athletico-PR to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Athletico-PR or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5 at 3.36.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Athletico-PRVasco
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws84
Losses39
Goals scored3323
Goals conceded2428
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record4W 5D 1L5W 2D 3L
Away record5W 3D 2L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored65%45%
Over 2.5 goals50%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.18
Over 3.5 goals24%4.10
Both teams to score47%2.11
Athletico-PR or Draw81%1.24
Vasco da Gama or Draw45%2.21
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.531%3.20
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.510%10.31
Athletico-PR clean sheet42%2.38
Vasco da Gama clean sheet19%5.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.7%
1-112.3%
2-010.9%
2-19.5%
0-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama?

Our prediction for Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama is Athletico-PR to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Athletico-PR or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Athletico-PR to score 1.6 goals and Vasco da Gama 0.9.

Will both teams score in Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Athletico-PR last 20 games and 9 of Vasco da Gama last 20.

How are Athletico-PR playing?

Athletico-PR have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

Vasco da Gama have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Athletico-PR and Vasco da Gama last met?

It ended Vasco da Gama 1, Athletico-PR 0. In the last 1 meeting Athletico-PR won 0 and Vasco da Gama won 1.

What is the best bet for Athletico-PR vs Vasco da Gama?

Athletico-PR or Draw at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Athletico-PR against Vasco. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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