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Predictions › United States › Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins
MLBFri 25 Sept, 19:10 United States time

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins prediction

loanDepot park

Atlanta BravesAway
3.9 : 3.7
projected runs
Miami MarlinsHome
54%Braves
46%Marlins
Eagle safe pickMarlins +2.5
-262

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins is Atlanta Braves to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Braves 3.9 and Miami Marlins 3.7. Our best bet is Marlins +2.5 at -262.

Prediction
Atlanta Braves to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Atlanta Braves 4, Miami Marlins 4
Projected total
7.6 runs
Best bet
Marlins +2.5 at -262

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Marlins +2.5
72% chanceFair price -2621 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami Marlins 46% and Atlanta Braves 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami Marlins won 2 of their last 5 and Atlanta Braves won 3 of their last 5. Atlanta Braves come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami Marlins won 4 of their last 12 games at home. Atlanta Braves won 3 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami Marlins score 5.0 runs a game and let in 5.8. Atlanta Braves score 4.1 and let in 4.0. Their recent games average 10.8 and 8.1 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Miami Marlins won 0 and Atlanta Braves won 5. The last one ended Atlanta Braves 11, Miami Marlins 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Marlins +2.5 has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Marlinsrest between games-5%
  • Bravesrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins: Atlanta Braves shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami Marlins host Atlanta Braves in the MLB on Fri 25 Sept, 19:10 at loanDepot park. Our prediction for Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins is Atlanta Braves to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Braves 3.9 and Miami Marlins 3.7. Our best bet is Marlins +2.5 at -262.

Miami Marlins form

Miami Marlins have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 100 runs scored and 116 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Atlanta Braves form

Atlanta Braves have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 82 runs scored and 80 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Miami Marlins won 0, Atlanta Braves won 5. Last time out it finished Atlanta Braves 11, Miami Marlins 3.

Our call

We expect Atlanta Braves to score about 3.9 runs and Miami Marlins about 3.7. That points to Atlanta Braves to win. Our safest bet is Marlins +2.5 at -262.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MarlinsBraves
Games played2020
Wins712
Losses138
Runs scored10082
Runs conceded11680
Scored per game5.04.1
Conceded per game5.84.0
Home record4W 8L9W 4L
Away record3W 5L3W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Marlins spreadCoversFair
Marlins -1.534%+193
Marlins -0.543%+131
Marlins +0.553%-111
Marlins +1.562%-163
Marlins +2.571%-241
Total runsOverUnder
5.568%32%
6.560%40%
7.551%49%
8.542%58%
9.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Marlins +3.5 wins if Marlins win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins?

Our prediction for Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins is Atlanta Braves to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Braves 3.9 and Miami Marlins 3.7. Our best bet is Marlins +2.5 at -262.

What is the projected score for Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins?

We project Atlanta Braves 3.9 and Miami Marlins 3.7, about 7.6 runs in total.

How are Miami Marlins playing?

Miami Marlins have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 100 runs scored and 116 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Atlanta Braves playing?

Atlanta Braves have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 82 runs scored and 80 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves last met?

It ended Atlanta Braves 11, Miami Marlins 3. In the last 5 meetings Miami Marlins won 0 and Atlanta Braves won 5.

What is the best bet for Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins?

Marlins +2.5 at -262, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Marlins against Braves. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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