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Predictions › United States › Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
NFLMon 5 Oct, 20:15 United States time

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints prediction

Caesars Superdome

Atlanta FalconsAway
23.2 : 24.3
projected points
New Orleans SaintsHome
46%Falcons
54%Saints
Eagle safe pickFalcons +9.5
-292

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints is New Orleans Saints to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Falcons 23.2 and New Orleans Saints 24.3. Our best bet is Falcons +9.5 at -292.

Prediction
New Orleans Saints to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Atlanta Falcons 23, New Orleans Saints 24
Projected total
47.5 points
Best bet
Falcons +9.5 at -292

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Falcons +9.5
74% chanceFair price -2921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New Orleans Saints 54% and Atlanta Falcons 46%. The bookmakers agree and make New Orleans Saints the favourite at -155.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New Orleans Saints won 2 of their last 5 and Atlanta Falcons won 3 of their last 5. Atlanta Falcons come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New Orleans Saints won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Atlanta Falcons won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    New Orleans Saints score 19.4 points a game and let in 22.9. Atlanta Falcons score 21.0 and let in 22.8. Their recent games average 42.3 and 43.8 points in total, and the market line is 48.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, New Orleans Saints won 0 and Atlanta Falcons won 2. The last one ended Atlanta Falcons 19, New Orleans Saints 17.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Falcons +9.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Saintsrest between games-5%
  • Saintsteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New Orleans Saints host Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Mon 5 Oct, 20:15 at Caesars Superdome. Our prediction for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints is New Orleans Saints to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Falcons 23.2 and New Orleans Saints 24.3. Our best bet is Falcons +9.5 at -292.

New Orleans Saints form

New Orleans Saints have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 387 points scored and 458 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Atlanta Falcons form

Atlanta Falcons have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 420 points scored and 455 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. New Orleans Saints won 0, Atlanta Falcons won 2. Last time out it finished Atlanta Falcons 19, New Orleans Saints 17.

Our call

We expect Atlanta Falcons to score about 23.2 points and New Orleans Saints about 24.3. That points to New Orleans Saints to win. Our safest bet is Falcons +9.5 at -292.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SaintsFalcons
Games played2020
Wins810
Losses1210
Points scored387420
Points conceded458455
Scored per game19.421.0
Conceded per game22.922.8
Home record3W 5L4W 5L
Away record5W 7L6W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Saints to win54%-116-155-11.7%
Falcons to win40%+150+130-7.9%
Saints -2.543%+134-120-21.6%
Falcons +2.551%-104+100+1.9%
Over 48.5 points44%+129-108-15.8%
Under 48.5 points50%-100-112-5.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Saints spreadCoversFair
Saints -8.529%+242
Saints -4.540%+149
Saints -1.549%+105
Saints +1.558%-136
Saints +5.569%-220
Total pointsOverUnder
40.570%30%
44.559%41%
47.550%50%
50.541%59%
54.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Saints +3.5 wins if Saints win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NFL

Saints Left Confused by Fumble Ruling in Loss to Raiders

The New Orleans Saints suffered a 35-27 loss to the Raiders after a controversial fumble call went against them in the fourth quarter.

8 hours ago
NFL

Jonathon Brooks Headed to Injured Reserve for Core Muscle Surgery

Carolina Panthers running back Jonathon Brooks is expected to undergo surgery on a core muscle injury and miss at least six weeks.

23 Sept 2026
NFL

Falcons Turn to Michael Penix Jr. to Solve Quarterback Crisis

Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his season debut for the winless Atlanta Falcons on Thursday against the Green Bay Packers.

21 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?

Our prediction for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints is New Orleans Saints to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Falcons 23.2 and New Orleans Saints 24.3. Our best bet is Falcons +9.5 at -292.

What is the projected score for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?

We project Atlanta Falcons 23.2 and New Orleans Saints 24.3, about 47.5 points in total.

How are New Orleans Saints playing?

New Orleans Saints have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 387 points scored and 458 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 5 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Atlanta Falcons playing?

Atlanta Falcons have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 420 points scored and 455 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons last met?

It ended Atlanta Falcons 19, New Orleans Saints 17. In the last 2 meetings New Orleans Saints won 0 and Atlanta Falcons won 2.

What is the best bet for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?

Falcons +9.5 at -292, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Saints against Falcons. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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