Quick answer
Our prediction for Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers is Atlanta Falcons to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Falcons 21.8 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.1. Our best bet is Falcons +8.5 at -287.
- Prediction
- Atlanta Falcons to win
- Chance
- 51%
- Projected score
- Atlanta Falcons 22, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22
- Projected total
- 43.9 points
- Best bet
- Falcons +8.5 at -287
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Falcons +8.5
74% chanceFair price -2871 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Tampa Bay Buccaneers 49% and Atlanta Falcons 51%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Tampa Bay Buccaneers the favourite at -118, so take care with this one.
- 2
Recent formTampa Bay Buccaneers won 1 of their last 5 and Atlanta Falcons won 2 of their last 5. Atlanta Falcons come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayTampa Bay Buccaneers won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Atlanta Falcons won 7 of their last 11 on the road.
- 4
ScoringTampa Bay Buccaneers score 18.7 points a game and let in 22.4. Atlanta Falcons score 22.1 and let in 23.9. Their recent games average 41.1 and 46.1 points in total, and the market line is 44.5.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 1 meeting, Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 0 and Atlanta Falcons won 1. The last one ended Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Atlanta Falcons 29.
- 6
The safest betFalcons +8.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewAtlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta Falcons shade it
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Tampa Bay Buccaneers host Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 at Raymond James Stadium. Our prediction for Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers is Atlanta Falcons to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Falcons 21.8 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.1. Our best bet is Falcons +8.5 at -287.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 374 points scored and 448 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.
Atlanta Falcons form
Atlanta Falcons have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 443 points scored and 479 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 1 time in our records. Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 0, Atlanta Falcons won 1. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Atlanta Falcons 29.
Our call
We expect Atlanta Falcons to score about 21.8 points and Tampa Bay Buccaneers about 22.1. That points to Atlanta Falcons to win. Our safest bet is Falcons +8.5 at -287.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against Draft Kings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Spread and total at every line
Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Buccaneers +3.5 wins if Buccaneers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.
Questions people ask
Who will win Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our prediction for Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers is Atlanta Falcons to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Atlanta Falcons 21.8 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.1. Our best bet is Falcons +8.5 at -287.
What is the projected score for Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
We project Atlanta Falcons 21.8 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.1, about 43.9 points in total.
How are Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 374 points scored and 448 conceded. At home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.
How are Atlanta Falcons playing?
Atlanta Falcons have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 443 points scored and 479 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.
What happened when Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons last met?
It ended Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Atlanta Falcons 29. In the last 1 meeting Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 0 and Atlanta Falcons won 1.
What is the best bet for Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Falcons +8.5 at -287, with a 74% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Buccaneers against Falcons. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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- No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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