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Predictions › United States › Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks
NBAFri 16 Oct, 20:00 United States time

Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks prediction

American Airlines Center

Atlanta HawksAway
122.5 : 118.6
projected points
Dallas MavericksHome
64%Hawks
36%Mavericks
Eagle safe pickHawks +4.5
-306

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 64% chance. We project Atlanta Hawks 122.5 and Dallas Mavericks 118.6. Our best bet is Hawks +4.5 at -306.

Prediction
Atlanta Hawks to win
Chance
64%
Projected score
Atlanta Hawks 122, Dallas Mavericks 119
Projected total
241.1 points
Best bet
Hawks +4.5 at -306

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Hawks +4.5
75% chanceFair price -3062 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mavericks to win
36% chanceFair price +1801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Dallas Mavericks 36% and Atlanta Hawks 64%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 5 and Atlanta Hawks won 1 of their last 5. Dallas Mavericks come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Atlanta Hawks won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Dallas Mavericks score 116.0 points a game and let in 125.9. Atlanta Hawks score 114.6 and let in 115.5. Their recent games average 241.9 and 230.1 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Dallas Mavericks won 0 and Atlanta Hawks won 2. The last one ended Dallas Mavericks 120, Atlanta Hawks 135.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Hawks +4.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Mavericksrest between games-3%
  • Hawksrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks: Atlanta Hawks are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Dallas Mavericks host Atlanta Hawks in the NBA on Fri 16 Oct, 20:00 at American Airlines Center. Our prediction for Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 64% chance. We project Atlanta Hawks 122.5 and Dallas Mavericks 118.6. Our best bet is Hawks +4.5 at -306.

Dallas Mavericks form

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2320 points scored and 2518 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Atlanta Hawks form

Atlanta Hawks have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2292 points scored and 2309 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Dallas Mavericks won 0, Atlanta Hawks won 2. Last time out it finished Dallas Mavericks 120, Atlanta Hawks 135.

Our call

We expect Atlanta Hawks to score about 122.5 points and Dallas Mavericks about 118.6. That points to Atlanta Hawks to win. Our safest bet is Hawks +4.5 at -306. Our bold bet is Mavericks to win at +180.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MavericksHawks
Games played2020
Wins510
Losses1510
Points scored23202292
Points conceded25182309
Scored per game116.0114.6
Conceded per game125.9115.5
Home record2W 6L6W 4L
Away record3W 9L4W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Mavericks spreadCoversFair
Mavericks -2.531%+227
Mavericks +0.539%+154
Mavericks +3.549%+105
Mavericks +6.558%-140
Mavericks +9.567%-207
Total pointsOverUnder
235.562%38%
238.556%44%
241.549%51%
244.542%58%
247.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Mavericks +3.5 wins if Mavericks win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Dallas Mavericks Center Dereck Lively II Out for Start of Training Camp

Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II is not cleared for training camp as he continues to recover from right foot surgery.

24 Sept 2026
NBA

Hawks Trade Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to Hornets for Dorian Finney-Smith

The Atlanta Hawks are trading Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to the Charlotte Hornets to acquire veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks?

Our prediction for Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks is Atlanta Hawks to win, with a 64% chance. We project Atlanta Hawks 122.5 and Dallas Mavericks 118.6. Our best bet is Hawks +4.5 at -306.

What is the projected score for Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks?

We project Atlanta Hawks 122.5 and Dallas Mavericks 118.6, about 241.1 points in total.

How are Dallas Mavericks playing?

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2320 points scored and 2518 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Atlanta Hawks playing?

Atlanta Hawks have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2292 points scored and 2309 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks last met?

It ended Dallas Mavericks 120, Atlanta Hawks 135. In the last 2 meetings Dallas Mavericks won 0 and Atlanta Hawks won 2.

What is the best bet for Atlanta Hawks vs Dallas Mavericks?

Hawks +4.5 at -306, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mavericks against Hawks. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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