Predictions › United States › Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC

MLSSat 24 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC prediction

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta United FCHome

1.45 : 2.09

expected goals

Chicago Fire FCAway

26%Atlanta

22%Draw

52%Chicago

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

-592

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC is Chicago Fire FC to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -592.

Prediction: Chicago Fire FC to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.4, Chicago Fire FC 2.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at -592
Both teams to score: 68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

86% chanceFair price -5922 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Chicago Fire FC to win and Over 2.5

40% chanceFair price +1511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlanta United FC 26%, the draw 22% and Chicago Fire FC 52%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Atlanta United FC took 8 points from their last 5 games and Chicago Fire FC took 9 from 5. Chicago Fire FC come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlanta United FC won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Chicago Fire FC won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlanta United FC score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Chicago Fire FC score 1.8 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Atlanta United FC games and 16 of Chicago Fire FC games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Atlanta United FC won 0 and Chicago Fire FC won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Chicago Fire FC 1, Atlanta United FC 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Chicagorecent form+3%
Atlantarest between games-5%
Chicagorest between games-5%

Atlanta form D L D W DChicago form D W W W LHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta United FC host Chicago Fire FC in the MLS on Sat 24 Oct, 19:30 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC is Chicago Fire FC to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -592.

Atlanta United FC form

Atlanta United FC have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Chicago Fire FC form

Chicago Fire FC have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlanta United FC won 0, Chicago Fire FC won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Chicago Fire FC 1, Atlanta United FC 0.

Our call

We expect Atlanta United FC to score about 1.4 goals and Chicago Fire FC about 2.1. That points to Chicago Fire FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -592. Our bold bet is Chicago Fire FC to win and Over 2.5 at +151.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlanta	Chicago
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	9
Draws	5	4
Losses	8	7
Goals scored	29	35
Goals conceded	32	35
Scored per game	1.4	1.8
Conceded per game	1.6	1.8
Home record	3W 1D 4L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	4W 4D 4L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	15%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	85%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	-691
Over 2.5 goals	69%	-219
Over 3.5 goals	47%	+112
Both teams to score	68%	-208
Atlanta United FC or Draw	48%	+108
Chicago Fire FC or Draw	74%	-286
Atlanta United FC to win and Over 2.5	19%	+420
Chicago Fire FC to win and Over 2.5	40%	+150
Atlanta United FC clean sheet	12%	+712
Chicago Fire FC clean sheet	24%	+325

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.3%

1-29.2%

2-26.7%

1-36.4%

0-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC?

Our prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC is Chicago Fire FC to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -592.

What is the score prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-2. We expect Atlanta United FC to score 1.4 goals and Chicago Fire FC 2.1.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Atlanta United FC last 20 games and 17 of Chicago Fire FC last 20.

How are Atlanta United FC playing?

How are Chicago Fire FC playing?

What happened when Atlanta United FC and Chicago Fire FC last met?

It ended Chicago Fire FC 1, Atlanta United FC 0. In the last 1 meeting Atlanta United FC won 0 and Chicago Fire FC won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire FC?

Over 1.5 goals at -592, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlanta against Chicago. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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