Predictions › United States › Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF
MLSSat 17 Oct, 19:30 United States time

Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF prediction

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta United FCHome
1.53 : 2.23
expected goals
Inter Miami CFAway
26%Atlanta
21%Draw
53%Miami
Eagle safe pickInter Miami CF or Draw
-301

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF is Inter Miami CF to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Inter Miami CF or Draw at -301.

Prediction
Inter Miami CF to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Atlanta United FC 1.5, Inter Miami CF 2.2
Best bet
Inter Miami CF or Draw at -301
Both teams to score
70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Inter Miami CF or Draw
75% chanceFair price -3012 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Inter Miami CF to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price +1521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta United FC 26%, the draw 21% and Inter Miami CF 53%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta United FC took 6 points from their last 5 games and Inter Miami CF took 4 from 5. Atlanta United FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta United FC won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Inter Miami CF won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlanta United FC score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Inter Miami CF score 2.5 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Atlanta United FC games and 15 of Inter Miami CF games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Atlanta United FC won 0 and Inter Miami CF won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Inter Miami CF 2, Atlanta United FC 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Inter Miami CF or Draw has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Atlanta form D W D L DMiami form L D W D DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF: Inter Miami CF are favourites

The big picture

Atlanta United FC host Inter Miami CF in the MLS on Sat 17 Oct, 19:30 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF is Inter Miami CF to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Inter Miami CF or Draw at -301.

Atlanta United FC form

Atlanta United FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Inter Miami CF form

Inter Miami CF have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 51 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlanta United FC won 0, Inter Miami CF won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Inter Miami CF 2, Atlanta United FC 2.

Our call

We expect Atlanta United FC to score about 1.5 goals and Inter Miami CF about 2.2. That points to Inter Miami CF to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Inter Miami CF or Draw at -301. Our bold bet is Inter Miami CF to win and Over 2.5 at +152.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtlantaMiami
Games played2020
Wins69
Draws57
Losses94
Goals scored2651
Goals conceded3338
Scored per game1.32.5
Conceded per game1.61.9
Home record3W 1D 5L4W 5D 2L
Away record3W 4D 4L5W 2D 2L
Clean sheets10%15%
Both teams scored70%85%
Over 2.5 goals65%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals89%-841
Over 2.5 goals72%-263
Over 3.5 goals52%-107
Both teams to score70%-237
Atlanta United FC or Draw47%+113
Inter Miami CF or Draw74%-289
Atlanta United FC to win and Over 2.520%+403
Inter Miami CF to win and Over 2.543%+135
Atlanta United FC clean sheet11%+830
Inter Miami CF clean sheet22%+361

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-28.9%
1-18.4%
2-26.8%
1-36.6%
2-16.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF?

Our prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF is Inter Miami CF to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Inter Miami CF or Draw at -301.

What is the score prediction for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-2. We expect Atlanta United FC to score 1.5 goals and Inter Miami CF 2.2.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Atlanta United FC last 20 games and 17 of Inter Miami CF last 20.

How are Atlanta United FC playing?

Atlanta United FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Inter Miami CF playing?

Inter Miami CF have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 51 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami CF last met?

It ended Inter Miami CF 2, Atlanta United FC 2. In the last 2 meetings Atlanta United FC won 0 and Inter Miami CF won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF?

Inter Miami CF or Draw at -301, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlanta against Miami. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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