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Predictions › Mexico › Atlante vs Monterrey
Liga MXSat 26 Sept, 01:00 Mexico time

Atlante vs Monterrey prediction

Estadio Banorte

AtlanteHome
1.07 : 1.19
expected goals
MonterreyAway
32%Atlante
30%Draw
38%Monterrey
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlante vs Monterrey is Monterrey to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Monterrey to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlante 1.1, Monterrey 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.101 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlante 32%, the draw 30% and Monterrey 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlante took 3 points from their last 5 games and Monterrey took 7 from 5. Monterrey come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlante won 0 of their last 4 games at home. Monterrey won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlante score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Monterrey score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Atlante games and 12 of Monterrey games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atlanterecent form-3%
Atlante form L D D L DMonterrey form D L W L WHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlante vs Monterrey: Monterrey shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlante host Monterrey in the Liga MX on Sat 26 Sept, 01:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for Atlante vs Monterrey is Monterrey to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Atlante form

Atlante have 1 win, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 8 games, with 7 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Monterrey form

Monterrey have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atlante to score about 1.1 goals and Monterrey about 1.2. That points to Monterrey to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtlanteMonterrey
Games played820
Wins15
Draws44
Losses311
Goals scored728
Goals conceded1233
Scored per game0.91.4
Conceded per game1.51.6
Home record0W 3D 1L4W 1D 6L
Away record1W 1D 2L1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets13%20%
Both teams scored63%55%
Over 2.5 goals38%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.50
Over 2.5 goals39%2.54
Over 3.5 goals19%5.18
Both teams to score47%2.15
Atlante or Draw62%1.61
Monterrey or Draw68%1.47
Atlante to win and Over 2.516%6.43
Monterrey to win and Over 2.519%5.28
Atlante clean sheet30%3.30
Monterrey clean sheet34%2.91

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
0-111.6%
0-011.2%
1-010.3%
1-27.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlante vs Monterrey?

Our prediction for Atlante vs Monterrey is Monterrey to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Atlante vs Monterrey?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Atlante to score 1.1 goals and Monterrey 1.2.

Will both teams score in Atlante vs Monterrey?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Atlante last 8 games and 11 of Monterrey last 20.

How are Atlante playing?

Atlante have 1 win, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 8 games, with 7 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Monterrey playing?

Monterrey have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Atlante vs Monterrey?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlante against Monterrey. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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