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Predictions › Mexico › Atlante vs Pumas UNAM
Liga MXSat 17 Oct, 03:00 Mexico time

Atlante vs Pumas UNAM prediction

Estadio Banorte

AtlanteHome
1.33 : 1.53
expected goals
Pumas UNAMAway
32%Atlante
26%Draw
42%UNAM
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlante vs Pumas UNAM is Pumas UNAM to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Pumas UNAM to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlante 1.3, Pumas UNAM 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Pumas UNAM to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlante 32%, the draw 26% and Pumas UNAM 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlante took 6 points from their last 5 games and Pumas UNAM took 4 from 5. Atlante come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlante won 1 of their last 5 games at home. Pumas UNAM won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlante score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.5. Pumas UNAM score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Atlante games and 11 of Pumas UNAM games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • UNAMrecent form-3%
Atlante form W D L D DUNAM form L D L W LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlante vs Pumas UNAM: Pumas UNAM shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlante host Pumas UNAM in the Liga MX on Sat 17 Oct, 03:00 at Estadio Banorte. Our prediction for Atlante vs Pumas UNAM is Pumas UNAM to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Atlante form

Atlante have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 10 games, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, D, newest first.

Pumas UNAM form

Pumas UNAM have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atlante to score about 1.3 goals and Pumas UNAM about 1.5. That points to Pumas UNAM to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Pumas UNAM to win and Over 2.5 at 3.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AtlanteUNAM
Games played1020
Wins28
Draws56
Losses36
Goals scored1233
Goals conceded1528
Scored per game1.21.6
Conceded per game1.51.4
Home record1W 3D 1L4W 3D 3L
Away record1W 2D 2L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals40%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.11
Both teams to score58%1.71
Atlante or Draw58%1.71
Pumas UNAM or Draw68%1.48
Atlante to win and Over 2.520%4.92
Pumas UNAM to win and Over 2.527%3.74
Atlante clean sheet22%4.64
Pumas UNAM clean sheet27%3.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
1-28.9%
0-18.1%
2-17.7%
1-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlante vs Pumas UNAM?

Our prediction for Atlante vs Pumas UNAM is Pumas UNAM to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Atlante vs Pumas UNAM?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Atlante to score 1.3 goals and Pumas UNAM 1.5.

Will both teams score in Atlante vs Pumas UNAM?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Atlante last 10 games and 11 of Pumas UNAM last 20.

How are Atlante playing?

Atlante have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 10 games, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, D, newest first.

How are Pumas UNAM playing?

Pumas UNAM have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Atlante vs Pumas UNAM?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlante against UNAM. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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