Predictions › Mexico › Atlas vs América

Liga MXThu 22 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Atlas vs América prediction

Estadio Jalisco

AtlasHome

1.16 : 1.50

expected goals

AméricaAway

29%Atlas

27%Draw

44%América

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlas vs América is América to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: América to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlas 1.2, América 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

América to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3.981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlas 29%, the draw 27% and América 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Atlas took 6 points from their last 5 games and América took 8 from 5. América come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlas won 1 of their last 10 games at home. América won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlas score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. América score 1.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Atlas games and 10 of América games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Atlas won 1 and América won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended América 0, Atlas 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Américarecent form-1%
Atlasrest between games-5%
Américarest between games-5%

Atlas form D W D L DAmérica form D W D L LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlas vs América: América shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlas host América in the Liga MX on Thu 22 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Jalisco. Our prediction for Atlas vs América is América to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Atlas form

Atlas have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

América form

América have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlas won 1, América won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished América 0, Atlas 1.

Our call

We expect Atlas to score about 1.2 goals and América about 1.5. That points to América to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is América to win and Over 2.5 at 3.98.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlas	América
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	7	8
Losses	6	4
Goals scored	22	35
Goals conceded	25	25
Scored per game	1.1	1.8
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	1W 6D 3L	4W 4D 2L
Away record	6W 1D 3L	4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.02
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.61
Both teams to score	54%	1.85
Atlas or Draw	56%	1.80
América or Draw	71%	1.40
Atlas to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.08
América to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.74
Atlas clean sheet	22%	4.49
América clean sheet	31%	3.18

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

0-19.8%

1-29.1%

0-27.9%

0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlas vs América?

Our prediction for Atlas vs América is América to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Atlas vs América?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Atlas to score 1.2 goals and América 1.5.

Will both teams score in Atlas vs América?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlas last 20 games and 12 of América last 20.

How are Atlas playing?

How are América playing?

What happened when Atlas and América last met?

It ended América 0, Atlas 1. In the last 1 meeting Atlas won 1 and América won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlas vs América?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlas against América. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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