Predictions › Mexico › Atlas vs Guadalajara

Liga MXSun 11 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Atlas vs Guadalajara prediction

Estadio Jalisco

AtlasHome

1.10 : 1.48

expected goals

GuadalajaraAway

27%Atlas

27%Draw

45%Guadalajara

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlas vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: Guadalajara to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlas 1.1, Guadalajara 1.5
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.871 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlas 27%, the draw 27% and Guadalajara 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Atlas took 5 points from their last 5 games and Guadalajara took 8 from 5. Guadalajara come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlas won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Guadalajara won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlas score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Guadalajara score 1.7 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Atlas games and 11 of Guadalajara games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Atlas won 0 and Guadalajara won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlas 1, Guadalajara 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Atlasrecent form-1%
Guadalajararecent form+1%

Atlas form W D L D LGuadalajara form L D W W DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlas vs Guadalajara: Guadalajara are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlas host Guadalajara in the Liga MX on Sun 11 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Jalisco. Our prediction for Atlas vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

Atlas form

Atlas have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlas won 0, Guadalajara won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlas 1, Guadalajara 2.

Our call

We expect Atlas to score about 1.1 goals and Guadalajara about 1.5. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5 at 3.87.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlas	Guadalajara
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	6	7
Losses	7	5
Goals scored	22	34
Goals conceded	26	25
Scored per game	1.1	1.7
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	1W 5D 4L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	6W 1D 3L	3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	35%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.85
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
Atlas or Draw	55%	1.83
Guadalajara or Draw	73%	1.38
Atlas to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.60
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.78
Atlas clean sheet	23%	4.41
Guadalajara clean sheet	33%	3.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

0-110.5%

1-29.1%

0-28.3%

0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Our prediction for Atlas vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Atlas vs Guadalajara?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Atlas to score 1.1 goals and Guadalajara 1.5.

Will both teams score in Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlas last 20 games and 10 of Guadalajara last 20.

How are Atlas playing?

How are Guadalajara playing?

What happened when Atlas and Guadalajara last met?

It ended Atlas 1, Guadalajara 2. In the last 2 meetings Atlas won 0 and Guadalajara won 2.

What is the best bet for Atlas vs Guadalajara?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlas against Guadalajara. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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