Predictions › Mexico › Atlas vs Puebla

Liga MXSun 25 Oct, 23:00 Mexico time

Atlas vs Puebla prediction

Estadio Jalisco

AtlasHome

1.26 : 0.97

expected goals

PueblaAway

42%Atlas

30%Draw

28%Puebla

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlas vs Puebla is Atlas to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Atlas to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlas 1.3, Puebla 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlas 42%, the draw 30% and Puebla 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Atlas took 6 points from their last 5 games and Puebla took 5 from 5. Atlas come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlas won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Puebla won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlas score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Puebla score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Atlas games and 9 of Puebla games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Atlas won 1 and Puebla won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlas 1, Puebla 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Pueblarecent form-1%

Atlas form D W D L DPuebla form D L D L WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlas vs Puebla: Atlas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlas host Puebla in the Liga MX on Sun 25 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio Jalisco. Our prediction for Atlas vs Puebla is Atlas to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Atlas form

Atlas have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 6 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Puebla form

Puebla have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlas won 1, Puebla won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlas 1, Puebla 0.

Our call

We expect Atlas to score about 1.3 goals and Puebla about 1.0. That points to Atlas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.18.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlas	Puebla
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	5
Draws	7	5
Losses	6	10
Goals scored	22	20
Goals conceded	25	29
Scored per game	1.1	1.0
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	1W 6D 3L	2W 5D 3L
Away record	6W 1D 3L	3W 0D 7L
Clean sheets	35%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.58
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.31
Both teams to score	45%	2.20
Atlas or Draw	72%	1.39
Puebla or Draw	58%	1.73
Atlas to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.77
Puebla to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.61
Atlas clean sheet	38%	2.65
Puebla clean sheet	28%	3.54

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

1-012.7%

0-011.5%

0-19.6%

2-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlas vs Puebla?

Our prediction for Atlas vs Puebla is Atlas to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Atlas vs Puebla?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Atlas to score 1.3 goals and Puebla 1.0.

Will both teams score in Atlas vs Puebla?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlas last 20 games and 12 of Puebla last 20.

How are Atlas playing?

How are Puebla playing?

What happened when Atlas and Puebla last met?

It ended Atlas 1, Puebla 0. In the last 1 meeting Atlas won 1 and Puebla won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlas vs Puebla?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlas against Puebla. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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