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Predictions › Colombia › Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera ATue 3 Nov, 01:15 Colombia time

Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional prediction

Estadio Alfonso López

Atlético BucaramangaHome
1.39 : 1.20
expected goals
Atlético NacionalAway
41%Bucaramanga
28%Draw
32%Atl. Nacional
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Bucaramanga to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Atlético Bucaramanga to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético Bucaramanga 1.4, Atlético Nacional 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Bucaramanga 41%, the draw 28% and Atlético Nacional 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Bucaramanga took 8 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Nacional took 10 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Bucaramanga won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético Nacional won 7 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Bucaramanga score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Atlético Nacional score 2.1 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Atlético Bucaramanga games and 12 of Atlético Nacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Atlético Bucaramanga won 1 and Atlético Nacional won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Nacional 2, Atlético Bucaramanga 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bucaramangarecent form+3%
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+1%
  • Bucaramangarest between games-5%
  • Atl. Nacionalrest between games-5%
Bucaramanga form D D D W WAtl. Nacional form D L W W DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional: Atlético Bucaramanga shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Bucaramanga host Atlético Nacional in the Colombian Primera A on Tue 3 Nov, 01:15 at Estadio Alfonso López. Our prediction for Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Bucaramanga to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Atlético Bucaramanga form

Atlético Bucaramanga have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlético Bucaramanga won 1, Atlético Nacional won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Nacional 2, Atlético Bucaramanga 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético Bucaramanga to score about 1.4 goals and Atlético Nacional about 1.2. That points to Atlético Bucaramanga to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.54.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BucaramangaAtl. Nacional
Games played2020
Wins714
Draws82
Losses54
Goals scored3142
Goals conceded2318
Scored per game1.62.1
Conceded per game1.10.9
Home record3W 6D 0L7W 2D 0L
Away record4W 2D 5L7W 0D 4L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.82
Both teams to score53%1.88
Atlético Bucaramanga or Draw68%1.46
Atlético Nacional or Draw59%1.68
Atlético Bucaramanga to win and Over 2.524%4.24
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.518%5.56
Atlético Bucaramanga clean sheet30%3.32
Atlético Nacional clean sheet25%4.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-09.7%
2-18.7%
0-08.3%
0-18.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional?

Our prediction for Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Bucaramanga to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Atlético Bucaramanga to score 1.4 goals and Atlético Nacional 1.2.

Will both teams score in Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Atlético Bucaramanga last 20 games and 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20.

How are Atlético Bucaramanga playing?

Atlético Bucaramanga have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Bucaramanga and Atlético Nacional last met?

It ended Atlético Nacional 2, Atlético Bucaramanga 0. In the last 2 meetings Atlético Bucaramanga won 1 and Atlético Nacional won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bucaramanga against Atl. Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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