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Predictions › Peru › Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1Sun 13 Sept, 20:15 Peru time

Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético prediction

Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo

Atlético GrauHome
1.29 : 1.13
expected goals
Alianza AtléticoAway
39%Atlético Grau
29%Draw
32%Alianza Atl
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético is Atlético Grau to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Atlético Grau to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético Grau 1.3, Alianza Atlético 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Grau 39%, the draw 29% and Alianza Atlético 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Grau the favourite at 2.40.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Grau took 10 points from their last 5 games and Alianza Atlético took 13 from 5. Alianza Atlético come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Grau won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Alianza Atlético won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Grau score 1.0 goals a game and let in 0.9. Alianza Atlético score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Atlético Grau games and 13 of Alianza Atlético games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Atlético Grau won 0 and Alianza Atlético won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Alianza Atlético 2, Atlético Grau 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atlético Graurecent form+3%
  • Alianza Atlrecent form+6%
Atlético Grau form L W W W DAlianza Atl form W W W D WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético: Atlético Grau shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Grau host Alianza Atlético in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sun 13 Sept, 20:15 at Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo. Our prediction for Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético is Atlético Grau to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Atlético Grau form

Atlético Grau have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Alianza Atlético form

Alianza Atlético have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlético Grau won 0, Alianza Atlético won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza Atlético 2, Atlético Grau 2.

Our call

We expect Atlético Grau to score about 1.3 goals and Alianza Atlético about 1.1. That points to Atlético Grau to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atlético GrauAlianza Atl
Games played2020
Wins89
Draws44
Losses87
Goals scored2035
Goals conceded1929
Scored per game1.01.8
Conceded per game0.91.4
Home record6W 1D 3L6W 2D 1L
Away record2W 3D 5L3W 2D 6L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored30%75%
Over 2.5 goals30%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Atlético Grau to win36%2.772.40-13.2%
A Draw28%3.633.10-14.6%
Alianza Atlético to win30%3.322.75-17.1%
Over 2.5 goals43%2.311.95-15.4%
Under 2.5 goals54%1.851.69-8.4%
Atlético Grau -0.536%2.762.30-16.7%
Alianza Atlético +0.562%1.621.50-7.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.29
Over 3.5 goals23%4.41
Both teams to score50%2.00
Atlético Grau or Draw68%1.46
Alianza Atlético or Draw61%1.65
Atlético Grau to win and Over 2.521%4.69
Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.517%5.95
Atlético Grau clean sheet32%3.11
Alianza Atlético clean sheet27%3.64

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
1-010.6%
0-09.6%
0-19.2%
2-18.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético?

Our prediction for Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético is Atlético Grau to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Atlético Grau to score 1.3 goals and Alianza Atlético 1.1.

Will both teams score in Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Atlético Grau last 20 games and 15 of Alianza Atlético last 20.

How are Atlético Grau playing?

Atlético Grau have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Alianza Atlético playing?

Alianza Atlético have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Grau and Alianza Atlético last met?

It ended Alianza Atlético 2, Atlético Grau 2. In the last 2 meetings Atlético Grau won 0 and Alianza Atlético won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlético Grau vs Alianza Atlético?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético Grau against Alianza Atl. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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