Predictions › Peru › Atlético Grau vs Universitario

Peruvian Liga 1Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 Peru time

Atlético Grau vs Universitario prediction

Estadio Campeones del '36

Atlético GrauHome

1.21 : 1.14

expected goals

UniversitarioAway

37%Atlético Grau

30%Draw

34%Universitario

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Grau vs Universitario is Atlético Grau to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: Atlético Grau to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlético Grau 1.2, Universitario 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.171 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlético Grau 37%, the draw 30% and Universitario 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Atlético Grau took 4 points from their last 5 games and Universitario took 8 from 5. Universitario come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlético Grau won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Universitario won 6 of their last 12 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlético Grau score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.2. Universitario score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Atlético Grau games and 13 of Universitario games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Atlético Grau won 1 and Universitario won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Universitario 0, Atlético Grau 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Atlético Graurecent form+1%
Universitariorecent form+3%

Atlético Grau form L W L W WUniversitario form L W D W WHome edge in this league 43% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Grau vs Universitario: Atlético Grau shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Grau host Universitario in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 31 Oct, 18:00 at Estadio Campeones del '36. Our prediction for Atlético Grau vs Universitario is Atlético Grau to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Atlético Grau form

Atlético Grau have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Universitario form

Universitario have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlético Grau won 1, Universitario won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Universitario 0, Atlético Grau 1.

Our call

We expect Atlético Grau to score about 1.2 goals and Universitario about 1.1. That points to Atlético Grau to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.17.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlético Grau	Universitario
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	9
Draws	2	7
Losses	10	4
Goals scored	22	32
Goals conceded	24	24
Scored per game	1.1	1.6
Conceded per game	1.2	1.2
Home record	6W 1D 3L	3W 4D 1L
Away record	2W 1D 7L	6W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.41
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.77
Both teams to score	48%	2.07
Atlético Grau or Draw	66%	1.50
Universitario or Draw	63%	1.58
Atlético Grau to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.23
Universitario to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.82
Atlético Grau clean sheet	32%	3.12
Universitario clean sheet	30%	3.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%

1-010.8%

0-010.4%

0-110.1%

2-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Grau vs Universitario?

Our prediction for Atlético Grau vs Universitario is Atlético Grau to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Grau vs Universitario?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Atlético Grau to score 1.2 goals and Universitario 1.1.

Will both teams score in Atlético Grau vs Universitario?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Atlético Grau last 20 games and 12 of Universitario last 20.

How are Atlético Grau playing?

How are Universitario playing?

What happened when Atlético Grau and Universitario last met?

It ended Universitario 0, Atlético Grau 1. In the last 1 meeting Atlético Grau won 1 and Universitario won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlético Grau vs Universitario?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético Grau against Universitario. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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