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Predictions › Colombia › Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera ASun 27 Sept, 01:20 Colombia time

Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín prediction

Romelio Martínez

Atlético JuniorHome
1.55 : 1.73
expected goals
Independiente MedellínAway
34%Atl. Junior
24%Draw
42%Ind. Medellín
Eagle safe pickIndependiente Medellín or Draw
1.49

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.49.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético Junior 1.6, Independiente Medellín 1.7
Best bet
Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.49
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Independiente Medellín or Draw
67% chanceFair price 1.491 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Junior 34%, the draw 24% and Independiente Medellín 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Junior took 3 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Medellín took 9 from 5. Independiente Medellín come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Junior won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Independiente Medellín won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Junior score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.5. Independiente Medellín score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Atlético Junior games and 11 of Independiente Medellín games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Atlético Junior won 1 and Independiente Medellín won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Independiente Medellín 2, Atlético Junior 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Independiente Medellín or Draw has a 67% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Home edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín: Independiente Medellín shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Junior host Independiente Medellín in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 27 Sept, 01:20 at Romelio Martínez. Our prediction for Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.49.

Atlético Junior form

Atlético Junior have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Atlético Junior won 1, Independiente Medellín won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Medellín 2, Atlético Junior 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético Junior to score about 1.6 goals and Independiente Medellín about 1.7. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.49. Our bold bet is Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.5 at 3.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atl. JuniorInd. Medellín
Games played2020
Wins511
Draws72
Losses87
Goals scored2629
Goals conceded3026
Scored per game1.31.4
Conceded per game1.51.3
Home record4W 5D 2L7W 1D 4L
Away record1W 2D 6L4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored55%55%
Over 2.5 goals40%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.57
Over 3.5 goals41%2.42
Both teams to score65%1.53
Atlético Junior or Draw58%1.72
Independiente Medellín or Draw66%1.52
Atlético Junior to win and Over 2.524%4.12
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.530%3.32
Atlético Junior clean sheet18%5.63
Independiente Medellín clean sheet21%4.69

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%
1-28.7%
2-17.8%
2-26.8%
0-15.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín?

Our prediction for Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.49.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Atlético Junior to score 1.6 goals and Independiente Medellín 1.7.

Will both teams score in Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Atlético Junior last 20 games and 11 of Independiente Medellín last 20.

How are Atlético Junior playing?

Atlético Junior have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Junior and Independiente Medellín last met?

It ended Independiente Medellín 2, Atlético Junior 0. In the last 4 meetings Atlético Junior won 1 and Independiente Medellín won 2.

What is the best bet for Atlético Junior vs Independiente Medellín?

Independiente Medellín or Draw at 1.49, with a 67% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Junior against Ind. Medellín. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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