Predictions › Spain › Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo

LaLigaSat 24 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo prediction

Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Atlético MadridHome

2.62 : 0.83

expected goals

DeportivoAway

75%Atlético

16%Draw

9%Deportivo

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Atlético Madrid to win
Chance: 75%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Atlético Madrid 2.6, Deportivo 0.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Madrid to win and both score

34% chanceFair price 2.931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlético Madrid 75%, the draw 16% and Deportivo 9%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Madrid the favourite at 1.19.
2
Recent form
Atlético Madrid took 15 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo took 5 from 5. Atlético Madrid come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlético Madrid won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlético Madrid score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.3. Deportivo score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Atlético Madrid games and 8 of Deportivo games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Atléticorecent form+6%
Atléticorest between games-5%

Atlético form D W W W WDeportivo form D D L D WHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo: Atlético Madrid are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Madrid host Deportivo in the LaLiga on Sat 24 Oct, 19:00 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Atlético Madrid form

Atlético Madrid have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Deportivo form

Deportivo have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Atlético Madrid to score about 2.6 goals and Deportivo about 0.8. That points to Atlético Madrid to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Atlético Madrid to win and both score at 2.93.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlético	Deportivo
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	9
Draws	2	8
Losses	7	3
Goals scored	34	31
Goals conceded	26	21
Scored per game	1.7	1.6
Conceded per game	1.3	1.1
Home record	6W 2D 2L	6W 3D 2L
Away record	5W 0D 5L	3W 5D 1L
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Atlético Madrid to win	75%	1.33	1.19	-10.5%
A Draw	15%	6.57	6.50	-1.0%
Deportivo to win	9%	10.71	12.00	+12.1%
Over 3.5 goals	43%	2.33	2.20	-5.7%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.61	-14.9%
Atlético Madrid -1.5	53%	1.89	1.56	-17.5%
Deportivo +1.5	43%	2.33	2.15	-7.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	1.49
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.21
Both teams to score	53%	1.90
Atlético Madrid or Draw	91%	1.10
Deportivo or Draw	25%	4.05
Atlético Madrid to win and Over 2.5	56%	1.77
Deportivo to win and Over 2.5	6%	17.45
Atlético Madrid clean sheet	44%	2.29
Deportivo clean sheet	7%	13.78

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.9%

3-09.5%

2-19.0%

1-07.9%

3-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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11 Oct 2026

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Jose Mourinho targeted the officials after Real Madrid lost the derby, while Arsenal suffered a shock defeat at Brighton.

21 Sept 2026

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Diego Simeone and José Mourinho will face each other in Sunday's Madrid Derby for the first time since 2014.

19 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo?

Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo is Atlético Madrid to win, with a 75% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Atlético Madrid to score 2.6 goals and Deportivo 0.8.

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Atlético Madrid last 20 games and 16 of Deportivo last 20.

How are Atlético Madrid playing?

How are Deportivo playing?

What is the best bet for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético against Deportivo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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