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Predictions › Brazil › Atlético-MG vs Coritiba
BrasileiraoSat 17 Oct, 21:30 Brazil time

Atlético-MG vs Coritiba prediction

Arena MRV

Atlético-MGHome
1.97 : 1.05
expected goals
CoritibaAway
58%Atlético-MG
23%Draw
19%Coritiba
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Coritiba is Atlético-MG to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Atlético-MG to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético-MG 2.0, Coritiba 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 2.691 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético-MG 58%, the draw 23% and Coritiba 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético-MG took 10 points from their last 5 games and Coritiba took 7 from 5. Atlético-MG come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético-MG won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Coritiba won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético-MG score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Coritiba score 1.4 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Atlético-MG games and 13 of Coritiba games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Atlético-MG won 0 and Coritiba won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Coritiba 2, Atlético-MG 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atlético-MGrecent form+3%
Atlético-MG form W D W W LCoritiba form L D L W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético-MG vs Coritiba: Atlético-MG are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético-MG host Coritiba in the Brasileirao on Sat 17 Oct, 21:30 at Arena MRV. Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Coritiba is Atlético-MG to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlético-MG won 0, Coritiba won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Coritiba 2, Atlético-MG 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético-MG to score about 2.0 goals and Coritiba about 1.1. That points to Atlético-MG to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5 at 2.69.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atlético-MGCoritiba
Games played2020
Wins106
Draws57
Losses57
Goals scored2928
Goals conceded2135
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.11.8
Home record6W 3D 1L4W 4D 3L
Away record4W 2D 4L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored50%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.72
Over 3.5 goals36%2.80
Both teams to score57%1.76
Atlético-MG or Draw81%1.24
Coritiba or Draw42%2.38
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.540%2.53
Coritiba to win and Over 2.512%8.34
Atlético-MG clean sheet35%2.87
Coritiba clean sheet14%7.15

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%
2-19.9%
2-09.4%
1-09.0%
3-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético-MG vs Coritiba?

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Coritiba is Atlético-MG to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Atlético-MG vs Coritiba?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Atlético-MG to score 2.0 goals and Coritiba 1.1.

Will both teams score in Atlético-MG vs Coritiba?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético-MG last 20 games and 13 of Coritiba last 20.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

Atlético-MG have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Coritiba playing?

Coritiba have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético-MG and Coritiba last met?

It ended Coritiba 2, Atlético-MG 0. In the last 1 meeting Atlético-MG won 0 and Coritiba won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlético-MG vs Coritiba?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético-MG against Coritiba. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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