Predictions › Brazil › Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino

BrasileiraoSat 3 Oct, 21:30 Brazil time

Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino prediction

Arena MRV

Atlético-MGHome

1.55 : 1.07

expected goals

Red Bull BragantinoAway

48%Atlético-MG

27%Draw

25%Bragantino

Eagle safe pickAtlético-MG or Draw

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino is Atlético-MG to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.33.

Prediction: Atlético-MG to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Atlético-MG 1.6, Red Bull Bragantino 1.1
Best bet: Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.33
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético-MG or Draw

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Atlético-MG 48%, the draw 27% and Red Bull Bragantino 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético-MG the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Atlético-MG took 8 points from their last 5 games and Red Bull Bragantino took 4 from 5. Atlético-MG come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Atlético-MG won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Red Bull Bragantino won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Atlético-MG score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Red Bull Bragantino score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Atlético-MG games and 10 of Red Bull Bragantino games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Atlético-MG won 0 and Red Bull Bragantino won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Red Bull Bragantino 1, Atlético-MG 0.
6
The safest bet
Atlético-MG or Draw has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bragantinorecent form-3%

Atlético-MG form D W W L LBragantino form L D L L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino: Atlético-MG are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético-MG host Red Bull Bragantino in the Brasileirao on Sat 3 Oct, 21:30 at Arena MRV. Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino is Atlético-MG to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.33.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Red Bull Bragantino form

Red Bull Bragantino have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlético-MG won 0, Red Bull Bragantino won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Red Bull Bragantino 1, Atlético-MG 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético-MG to score about 1.6 goals and Red Bull Bragantino about 1.1. That points to Atlético-MG to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.33. Our bold bet is Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5 at 3.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Atlético-MG	Bragantino
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	8
Draws	5	4
Losses	6	8
Goals scored	28	28
Goals conceded	22	23
Scored per game	1.4	1.4
Conceded per game	1.1	1.1
Home record	5W 3D 1L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	4W 2D 5L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Atlético-MG to win	45%	2.24	2.05	-8.5%
A Draw	26%	3.87	3.35	-13.4%
Red Bull Bragantino to win	25%	4.07	3.35	-17.6%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.18	1.87	-14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.09	1.80	-13.7%
Atlético-MG -0.5	44%	2.29	1.95	-14.7%
Red Bull Bragantino +0.5	50%	2.00	1.69	-15.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.05
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.72
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
Atlético-MG or Draw	75%	1.34
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw	52%	1.91
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.52
Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.04
Atlético-MG clean sheet	34%	2.91
Red Bull Bragantino clean sheet	21%	4.72

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%

1-010.6%

2-19.4%

2-08.8%

0-08.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino?

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino is Atlético-MG to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Atlético-MG to score 1.6 goals and Red Bull Bragantino 1.1.

Will both teams score in Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético-MG last 20 games and 11 of Red Bull Bragantino last 20.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

How are Red Bull Bragantino playing?

What happened when Atlético-MG and Red Bull Bragantino last met?

It ended Red Bull Bragantino 1, Atlético-MG 0. In the last 2 meetings Atlético-MG won 0 and Red Bull Bragantino won 2.

What is the best bet for Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino?

Atlético-MG or Draw at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético-MG against Bragantino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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