EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Brazil › Atlético-MG vs Santos
BrasileiraoSun 11 Oct, 19:00 Brazil time

Atlético-MG vs Santos prediction

Arena MRV

Atlético-MGHome
1.69 : 1.52
expected goals
SantosAway
41%Atlético-MG
25%Draw
34%Santos
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Santos is Atlético-MG to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Atlético-MG to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético-MG 1.7, Santos 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético-MG 41%, the draw 25% and Santos 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético-MG took 8 points from their last 5 games and Santos took 13 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético-MG won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Santos won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético-MG score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Santos score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Atlético-MG games and 12 of Santos games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Atlético-MG won 0 and Santos won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Santos 1, Atlético-MG 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Santosrecent form+4%
Atlético-MG form D W W L LSantos form W L W W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético-MG vs Santos: Atlético-MG shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético-MG host Santos in the Brasileirao on Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 at Arena MRV. Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Santos is Atlético-MG to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Santos form

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlético-MG won 0, Santos won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Santos 1, Atlético-MG 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético-MG to score about 1.7 goals and Santos about 1.5. That points to Atlético-MG to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.5 at 3.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atlético-MGSantos
Games played2020
Wins99
Draws55
Losses66
Goals scored2831
Goals conceded2227
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record5W 3D 1L5W 2D 3L
Away record4W 2D 5L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets20%30%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals62%1.60
Over 3.5 goals40%2.49
Both teams to score64%1.55
Atlético-MG or Draw66%1.52
Santos or Draw59%1.71
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.529%3.39
Santos to win and Over 2.524%4.17
Atlético-MG clean sheet22%4.59
Santos clean sheet18%5.44

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%
2-26.7%
1-06.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético-MG vs Santos?

Our prediction for Atlético-MG vs Santos is Atlético-MG to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Atlético-MG vs Santos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Atlético-MG to score 1.7 goals and Santos 1.5.

Will both teams score in Atlético-MG vs Santos?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético-MG last 20 games and 12 of Santos last 20.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Santos playing?

Santos have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Atlético-MG and Santos last met?

It ended Santos 1, Atlético-MG 0. In the last 2 meetings Atlético-MG won 0 and Santos won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlético-MG vs Santos?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atlético-MG against Santos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.