Quick answer
Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.
- Prediction
- Atlético Nacional to win
- Chance
- 62%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
- Expected goals
- Atlético Nacional 2.0, Atlético Junior 0.9
- Best bet
- Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Atlético Nacional or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡ Eagle bold pick
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 2.691 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Atlético Nacional 62%, the draw 22% and Atlético Junior 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Nacional the favourite at 1.50.
- 2
Recent formAtlético Nacional took 10 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Junior took 8 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayAtlético Nacional won 7 of their last 8 games at home. Atlético Junior won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
- 4
GoalsAtlético Nacional score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.0. Atlético Junior score 1.4 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Atlético Nacional games and 9 of Atlético Junior games in that run.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 5 meetings, Atlético Nacional won 2 and Atlético Junior won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Atlético Nacional 1, Atlético Junior 0.
- 6
The safest betAtlético Nacional or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.- Atl. Nacionalrecent form+3%
- Atl. Juniorrecent form+1%
- Atl. Juniorrest between games-5%
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewAtlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior: Atlético Nacional are favourites
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Atlético Nacional host Atlético Junior in the Colombian Primera A on Thu 1 Oct, 01:00 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.
Atlético Nacional form
Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.
Atlético Junior form
Atlético Junior have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, D, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 5 times in our records. Atlético Nacional won 2, Atlético Junior won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Nacional 1, Atlético Junior 0.
Our call
We expect Atlético Nacional to score about 2.0 goals and Atlético Junior about 0.9. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 2.69.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against DraftKings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Goals and other markets
Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.
Most likely scores
2-011.1%
1-010.7%
1-110.7%
2-19.9%
3-07.3%
Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.
Questions people ask
Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior?
Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.
What is the score prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior?
2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Atlético Nacional to score 2.0 goals and Atlético Junior 0.9.
Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior?
Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20 games and 11 of Atlético Junior last 20.
How are Atlético Nacional playing?
Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.
How are Atlético Junior playing?
Atlético Junior have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, D, newest first.
What happened when Atlético Nacional and Atlético Junior last met?
It ended Atlético Nacional 1, Atlético Junior 0. In the last 5 meetings Atlético Nacional won 2 and Atlético Junior won 2.
What is the best bet for Atlético Nacional vs Atlético Junior?
Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Nacional against Atl. Junior. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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