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Predictions › Colombia › Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera AThu 8 Oct, 01:20 Colombia time

Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Atlético NacionalHome
1.77 : 0.66
expected goals
Deportes TolimaAway
64%Atl. Nacional
24%Draw
13%Tolima
Eagle safe pickAtlético Nacional or Draw
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.18.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Atlético Nacional 1.8, Deportes Tolima 0.7
Best bet
Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.18
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético Nacional or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Nacional 64%, the draw 24% and Deportes Tolima 13%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Nacional took 10 points from their last 5 games and Deportes Tolima took 5 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Nacional won 7 of their last 8 games at home. Deportes Tolima won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Nacional score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.0. Deportes Tolima score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Atlético Nacional games and 11 of Deportes Tolima games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Atlético Nacional won 2 and Deportes Tolima won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético Nacional 3, Deportes Tolima 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atlético Nacional or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+3%
  • Tolimarecent form-1%
  • Tolimarest between games-5%
Atl. Nacional form D L W W WTolima form D D L L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Nacional host Deportes Tolima in the Colombian Primera A on Thu 8 Oct, 01:20 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.18.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Deportes Tolima form

Deportes Tolima have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Atlético Nacional won 2, Deportes Tolima won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Nacional 3, Deportes Tolima 1.

Our call

We expect Atlético Nacional to score about 1.8 goals and Deportes Tolima about 0.7. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.18. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 3.07.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atl. NacionalTolima
Games played2020
Wins148
Draws14
Losses58
Goals scored3923
Goals conceded2024
Scored per game1.91.1
Conceded per game1.01.2
Home record7W 1D 0L5W 2D 3L
Away record7W 0D 5L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.29
Over 3.5 goals23%4.43
Both teams to score40%2.47
Atlético Nacional or Draw87%1.15
Deportes Tolima or Draw36%2.74
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.535%2.89
Deportes Tolima to win and Over 2.56%17.93
Atlético Nacional clean sheet52%1.93
Deportes Tolima clean sheet17%5.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.1%
2-013.9%
1-110.9%
0-09.5%
2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Atlético Nacional to score 1.8 goals and Deportes Tolima 0.7.

Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20 games and 10 of Deportes Tolima last 20.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Deportes Tolima playing?

Deportes Tolima have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Nacional and Deportes Tolima last met?

It ended Atlético Nacional 3, Deportes Tolima 1. In the last 3 meetings Atlético Nacional won 2 and Deportes Tolima won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlético Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?

Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Nacional against Tolima. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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