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Predictions › Colombia › Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera ASun 11 Oct, 01:15 Colombia time

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto prediction

Atlético NacionalHome
2.40 : 0.76
expected goals
Deportivo PastoAway
73%Atl. Nacional
17%Draw
9%Pasto
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
73%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Atlético Nacional 2.4, Deportivo Pasto 0.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Nacional to win and both score
30% chanceFair price 3.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Nacional 73%, the draw 17% and Deportivo Pasto 9%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Nacional took 10 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Pasto took 7 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Nacional won 7 of their last 8 games at home. Deportivo Pasto won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Nacional score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.0. Deportivo Pasto score 1.0 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Atlético Nacional games and 10 of Deportivo Pasto games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Atlético Nacional won 1 and Deportivo Pasto won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportivo Pasto 1, Atlético Nacional 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+3%
  • Atl. Nacionalrest between games-5%
Atl. Nacional form W D L W WPasto form L W W L DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Nacional host Deportivo Pasto in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 11 Oct, 01:15. Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Deportivo Pasto form

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlético Nacional won 1, Deportivo Pasto won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Pasto 1, Atlético Nacional 2.

Our call

We expect Atlético Nacional to score about 2.4 goals and Deportivo Pasto about 0.8. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and both score at 3.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atl. NacionalPasto
Games played2020
Wins145
Draws13
Losses512
Goals scored4020
Goals conceded2032
Scored per game2.01.0
Conceded per game1.01.6
Home record7W 1D 0L2W 0D 7L
Away record7W 0D 5L3W 3D 5L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.64
Over 3.5 goals39%2.58
Both teams to score49%2.05
Atlético Nacional or Draw91%1.10
Deportivo Pasto or Draw27%3.76
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.551%1.95
Deportivo Pasto to win and Over 2.55%18.37
Atlético Nacional clean sheet47%2.13
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet9%11.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-012.3%
3-09.8%
1-09.8%
2-19.3%
1-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 1-0. We expect Atlético Nacional to score 2.4 goals and Deportivo Pasto 0.8.

Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20 games and 10 of Deportivo Pasto last 20.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Deportivo Pasto playing?

Deportivo Pasto have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Nacional and Deportivo Pasto last met?

It ended Deportivo Pasto 1, Atlético Nacional 2. In the last 2 meetings Atlético Nacional won 1 and Deportivo Pasto won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Nacional against Pasto. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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