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Predictions › Colombia › Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira
Colombian Primera ASat 7 Nov, 23:10 Colombia time

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Atlético NacionalHome
2.32 : 0.48
expected goals
Deportivo PereiraAway
79%Atl. Nacional
16%Draw
6%Pereira
Eagle safe pickAtlético Nacional to win
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional to win at 1.27.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
79%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Atlético Nacional 2.3, Deportivo Pereira 0.5
Best bet
Atlético Nacional to win at 1.27
Both teams to score
35%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético Nacional to win
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 2-0
16% chanceFair price 6.111 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Nacional 79%, the draw 16% and Deportivo Pereira 6%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Nacional took 10 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Pereira took 6 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Nacional won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Deportivo Pereira won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Nacional score 2.1 goals a game and let in 0.9. Deportivo Pereira score 0.7 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Atlético Nacional games and 7 of Deportivo Pereira games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Atlético Nacional won 0 and Deportivo Pereira won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportivo Pereira 1, Atlético Nacional 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atlético Nacional to win has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+3%
Atl. Nacional form D W L W WPereira form D W D D LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Nacional host Deportivo Pereira in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 7 Nov, 23:10 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional to win at 1.27.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Deportivo Pereira form

Deportivo Pereira have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlético Nacional won 0, Deportivo Pereira won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Pereira 1, Atlético Nacional 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético Nacional to score about 2.3 goals and Deportivo Pereira about 0.5. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional to win at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 2-0 at 6.11.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atl. NacionalPereira
Games played2020
Wins143
Draws29
Losses48
Goals scored4214
Goals conceded1825
Scored per game2.10.7
Conceded per game0.91.3
Home record8W 2D 0L2W 4D 4L
Away record6W 0D 4L1W 5D 4L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored50%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.24
Both teams to score35%2.88
Atlético Nacional or Draw94%1.06
Deportivo Pereira or Draw21%4.68
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.549%2.06
Deportivo Pereira to win and Over 2.52%41.51
Atlético Nacional clean sheet62%1.61
Deportivo Pereira clean sheet10%10.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-016.4%
1-013.7%
3-012.7%
2-17.8%
4-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional to win at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 3-0. We expect Atlético Nacional to score 2.3 goals and Deportivo Pereira 0.5.

Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?

Both teams to score has a 35% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20 games and 8 of Deportivo Pereira last 20.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Deportivo Pereira playing?

Deportivo Pereira have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Nacional and Deportivo Pereira last met?

It ended Deportivo Pereira 1, Atlético Nacional 0. In the last 1 meeting Atlético Nacional won 0 and Deportivo Pereira won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?

Atlético Nacional to win at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Nacional against Pereira. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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