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Predictions › Colombia › Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera ASun 25 Oct, 23:10 Colombia time

Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Atlético NacionalHome
2.01 : 0.95
expected goals
Independiente MedellínAway
61%Atl. Nacional
22%Draw
17%Ind. Medellín
Eagle safe pickAtlético Nacional or Draw
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
61%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Atlético Nacional 2.0, Independiente Medellín 0.9
Best bet
Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético Nacional or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Nacional 61%, the draw 22% and Independiente Medellín 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Nacional took 8 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Medellín took 7 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Nacional won 7 of their last 9 games at home. Independiente Medellín won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Nacional score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.9. Independiente Medellín score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Atlético Nacional games and 12 of Independiente Medellín games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Atlético Nacional won 3 and Independiente Medellín won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Independiente Medellín 2, Atlético Nacional 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atlético Nacional or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form-1%
Atl. Nacional form D D W D LInd. Medellín form D W L D LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Nacional host Independiente Medellín in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 25 Oct, 23:10 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Atlético Nacional won 3, Independiente Medellín won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Medellín 2, Atlético Nacional 3.

Our call

We expect Atlético Nacional to score about 2.0 goals and Independiente Medellín about 0.9. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 2.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atl. NacionalInd. Medellín
Games played2020
Wins1311
Draws22
Losses57
Goals scored3729
Goals conceded1825
Scored per game1.91.4
Conceded per game0.91.3
Home record7W 2D 0L7W 1D 4L
Away record6W 0D 5L4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored45%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals57%1.76
Over 3.5 goals34%2.90
Both teams to score54%1.86
Atlético Nacional or Draw83%1.20
Independiente Medellín or Draw39%2.59
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.541%2.43
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.510%10.12
Atlético Nacional clean sheet39%2.59
Independiente Medellín clean sheet13%7.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%
2-010.4%
2-19.9%
1-09.8%
3-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 2-1. We expect Atlético Nacional to score 2.0 goals and Independiente Medellín 0.9.

Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Atlético Nacional last 20 games and 10 of Independiente Medellín last 20.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín last met?

It ended Independiente Medellín 2, Atlético Nacional 3. In the last 4 meetings Atlético Nacional won 3 and Independiente Medellín won 0.

What is the best bet for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?

Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Nacional against Ind. Medellín. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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