Quick answer
Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.
- Prediction
- Atlético Nacional to win
- Chance
- 58%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
- Expected goals
- Atlético Nacional 1.7, Independiente Santa Fe 0.8
- Best bet
- Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22
- Both teams to score
- 47%
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Atlético Nacional or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡ Eagle bold pick
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.061 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Atlético Nacional 58%, the draw 25% and Independiente Santa Fe 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Nacional the favourite at 1.53.
- 2
Recent formAtlético Nacional took 8 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Santa Fe took 9 from 5. Independiente Santa Fe come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayAtlético Nacional won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Independiente Santa Fe won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
- 4
GoalsAtlético Nacional score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.9. Independiente Santa Fe score 1.4 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Atlético Nacional games and 8 of Independiente Santa Fe games in that run.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 1 meeting, Atlético Nacional won 1 and Independiente Santa Fe won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente Santa Fe 1, Atlético Nacional 2.
- 6
The safest betAtlético Nacional or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.- Atl. Nacionalrecent form+3%
- Santa Ferecent form+4%
- Atl. Nacionalrest between games-2%
- Santa Ferest between games-5%
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewAtlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe: Atlético Nacional are favourites
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Atlético Nacional host Independiente Santa Fe in the Colombian Primera A on Fri 30 Oct, 01:30 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.
Atlético Nacional form
Atlético Nacional have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, L, newest first.
Independiente Santa Fe form
Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlético Nacional won 1, Independiente Santa Fe won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Santa Fe 1, Atlético Nacional 2.
Our call
We expect Atlético Nacional to score about 1.7 goals and Independiente Santa Fe about 0.8. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 3.06.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against DraftKings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Goals and other markets
Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.
Most likely scores
1-012.9%
1-111.8%
2-011.6%
2-19.6%
0-08.6%
Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.
Questions people ask
Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe?
Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22.
What is the score prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe?
1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Atlético Nacional to score 1.7 goals and Independiente Santa Fe 0.8.
Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe?
Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20 games and 11 of Independiente Santa Fe last 20.
How are Atlético Nacional playing?
Atlético Nacional have 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, L, newest first.
How are Independiente Santa Fe playing?
Independiente Santa Fe have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.
What happened when Atlético Nacional and Independiente Santa Fe last met?
It ended Independiente Santa Fe 1, Atlético Nacional 2. In the last 1 meeting Atlético Nacional won 1 and Independiente Santa Fe won 0.
What is the best bet for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe?
Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Nacional against Santa Fe. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
- 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
- Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
- No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
- Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.
Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.
Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.
Kenya
Nigeria
Ghana
South Africa
United Kingdom
United States
India
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Cameroon
Ivory Coast
