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Predictions › Colombia › Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas
Colombian Primera ASun 8 Nov, 20:30 Colombia time

Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Atlético NacionalHome
1.65 : 0.67
expected goals
Once CaldasAway
60%Atl. Nacional
25%Draw
14%Once Caldas
Eagle safe pickAtlético Nacional or Draw
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.17.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Atlético Nacional 1.6, Once Caldas 0.7
Best bet
Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.17
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético Nacional or Draw
86% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlético Nacional 60%, the draw 25% and Once Caldas 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlético Nacional took 10 points from their last 5 games and Once Caldas took 11 from 5. Once Caldas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlético Nacional won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Once Caldas won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Atlético Nacional score 2.1 goals a game and let in 0.9. Once Caldas score 1.2 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Atlético Nacional games and 6 of Once Caldas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Atlético Nacional won 0 and Once Caldas won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Once Caldas 1, Atlético Nacional 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atlético Nacional or Draw has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+3%
  • Once Caldasrecent form+3%
  • Once Caldasrest between games-5%
Atl. Nacional form D W L W WOnce Caldas form D D D W WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlético Nacional host Once Caldas in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.17.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Atlético Nacional won 0, Once Caldas won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Once Caldas 1, Atlético Nacional 0.

Our call

We expect Atlético Nacional to score about 1.6 goals and Once Caldas about 0.7. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.17. Our bold bet is Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.5 at 3.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Atl. NacionalOnce Caldas
Games played2020
Wins147
Draws27
Losses46
Goals scored4224
Goals conceded1821
Scored per game2.11.2
Conceded per game0.91.1
Home record8W 2D 0L5W 1D 4L
Away record6W 0D 4L2W 6D 2L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals60%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.44
Over 3.5 goals20%4.88
Both teams to score40%2.49
Atlético Nacional or Draw86%1.17
Once Caldas or Draw40%2.52
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.531%3.18
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.56%16.37
Atlético Nacional clean sheet51%1.96
Once Caldas clean sheet19%5.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.5%
2-013.3%
1-111.5%
0-010.5%
2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Our prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Atlético Nacional to score 1.6 goals and Once Caldas 0.7.

Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20 games and 11 of Once Caldas last 20.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Once Caldas playing?

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlético Nacional and Once Caldas last met?

It ended Once Caldas 1, Atlético Nacional 0. In the last 1 meeting Atlético Nacional won 0 and Once Caldas won 1.

What is the best bet for Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas?

Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Atl. Nacional against Once Caldas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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