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Predictions › Australia › Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC
A-LeagueSat 17 Oct, 04:00 Australia time

Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC prediction

Go Media Stadium

Auckland FCHome
1.37 : 1.17
expected goals
Melbourne City FCAway
41%Auckland
28%Draw
31%Melbourne City
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC is Auckland FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Auckland FC to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Auckland FC 1.4, Melbourne City FC 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Auckland FC 41%, the draw 28% and Melbourne City FC 31%. The bookmakers agree and make Auckland FC the favourite at 2.40.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Auckland FC took 9 points from their last 5 games and Melbourne City FC took 10 from 5. Melbourne City FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Auckland FC won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Melbourne City FC won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Auckland FC score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Melbourne City FC score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Auckland FC games and 10 of Melbourne City FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Auckland FC won 1 and Melbourne City FC won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Auckland FC 1, Melbourne City FC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aucklandrecent form+3%
  • Melbourne Cityrecent form+1%
  • Aucklandrest between games-3%
  • Melbourne Cityrest between games-3%
Auckland form L W W D WMelbourne City form L L W W WHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC: Auckland FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Auckland FC host Melbourne City FC in the A-League on Sat 17 Oct, 04:00 at Go Media Stadium. Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC is Auckland FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

Auckland FC form

Auckland FC have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Melbourne City FC form

Melbourne City FC have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Auckland FC won 1, Melbourne City FC won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Auckland FC 1, Melbourne City FC 1.

Our call

We expect Auckland FC to score about 1.4 goals and Melbourne City FC about 1.2. That points to Auckland FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AucklandMelbourne City
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws96
Losses47
Goals scored3325
Goals conceded2129
Scored per game1.61.3
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record3W 5D 2L5W 2D 5L
Away record4W 4D 2L2W 4D 2L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Auckland FC to win38%2.642.40-9.1%
A Draw28%3.603.15-12.4%
Melbourne City FC to win31%3.232.85-11.8%
Over 2.5 goals44%2.291.95-14.9%
Under 2.5 goals50%2.011.71-14.8%
Auckland FC -0.538%2.652.25-15.2%
Melbourne City FC +0.556%1.791.51-15.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.14
Over 3.5 goals25%3.97
Both teams to score52%1.91
Auckland FC or Draw69%1.46
Melbourne City FC or Draw59%1.68
Auckland FC to win and Over 2.523%4.32
Melbourne City FC to win and Over 2.517%5.72
Auckland FC clean sheet31%3.24
Melbourne City FC clean sheet25%3.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
1-010.0%
2-18.6%
0-08.6%
0-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC?

Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC is Auckland FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Auckland FC to score 1.4 goals and Melbourne City FC 1.2.

Will both teams score in Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Auckland FC last 20 games and 12 of Melbourne City FC last 20.

How are Auckland FC playing?

Auckland FC have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Melbourne City FC playing?

Melbourne City FC have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Auckland FC and Melbourne City FC last met?

It ended Auckland FC 1, Melbourne City FC 1. In the last 3 meetings Auckland FC won 1 and Melbourne City FC won 1.

What is the best bet for Auckland FC vs Melbourne City FC?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Auckland against Melbourne City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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