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Predictions › Australia › Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory
A-LeagueSat 21 Nov, 04:00 Australia time

Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory prediction

Go Media Stadium

Auckland FCHome
1.44 : 1.33
expected goals
Melbourne VictoryAway
39%Auckland
27%Draw
34%Melbourne V
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory is Auckland FC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Auckland FC to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Auckland FC 1.4, Melbourne Victory 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Auckland FC 39%, the draw 27% and Melbourne Victory 34%. The bookmakers agree and make Auckland FC the favourite at 2.50.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Auckland FC took 8 points from their last 5 games and Melbourne Victory took 3 from 5. Auckland FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Auckland FC won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Melbourne Victory won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Auckland FC score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Melbourne Victory score 1.7 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Auckland FC games and 11 of Melbourne Victory games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Auckland FC won 0 and Melbourne Victory won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Auckland FC 2, Melbourne Victory 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aucklandrecent form-1%
  • Melbourne Vrecent form-3%
Auckland form D D L W LMelbourne V form D L D L DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory: Auckland FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Auckland FC host Melbourne Victory in the A-League on Sat 21 Nov, 04:00 at Go Media Stadium. Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory is Auckland FC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Auckland FC form

Auckland FC have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Melbourne Victory form

Melbourne Victory have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Auckland FC won 0, Melbourne Victory won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Auckland FC 2, Melbourne Victory 2.

Our call

We expect Auckland FC to score about 1.4 goals and Melbourne Victory about 1.3. That points to Auckland FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AucklandMelbourne V
Games played2020
Wins76
Draws98
Losses46
Goals scored3334
Goals conceded2325
Scored per game1.61.7
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record4W 5D 2L3W 5D 3L
Away record3W 4D 2L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets30%10%
Both teams scored65%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Auckland FC to win38%2.642.50-5.2%
A Draw26%3.803.45-9.2%
Melbourne Victory to win34%2.982.55-14.3%
Over 2.5 goals49%2.051.71-16.5%
Under 2.5 goals44%2.261.95-13.5%
Auckland FC -0.538%2.652.35-11.4%
Melbourne Victory +0.556%1.771.48-16.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.32
Both teams to score57%1.76
Auckland FC or Draw66%1.52
Melbourne Victory or Draw61%1.64
Auckland FC to win and Over 2.524%4.14
Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.521%4.76
Auckland FC clean sheet26%3.79
Melbourne Victory clean sheet24%4.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
2-18.6%
1-08.3%
1-28.0%
0-17.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
A-League

South Melbourne Make History With Australia Cup Penalty Win Over Victory

South Melbourne became the first non A-League club to win the Australia Cup after beating Melbourne Victory on penalties.

10 Oct 2026
A-League

New Melbourne Victory Boss Savarese Ready for Historic Cup Final

New Melbourne Victory coach Giovanni Savarese reflects on his connection to Australian football culture ahead of a historic Australia Cup final.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory is Auckland FC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Auckland FC to score 1.4 goals and Melbourne Victory 1.3.

Will both teams score in Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Auckland FC last 20 games and 14 of Melbourne Victory last 20.

How are Auckland FC playing?

Auckland FC have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Melbourne Victory playing?

Melbourne Victory have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Auckland FC and Melbourne Victory last met?

It ended Auckland FC 2, Melbourne Victory 2. In the last 2 meetings Auckland FC won 0 and Melbourne Victory won 0.

What is the best bet for Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Auckland against Melbourne V. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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