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Predictions › Australia › Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
A-LeagueSat 7 Nov, 04:00 Australia time

Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix prediction

Go Media Stadium

Auckland FCHome
1.83 : 1.14
expected goals
Wellington PhoenixAway
53%Auckland
24%Draw
23%Wellington
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix is Auckland FC to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Auckland FC to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Auckland FC 1.8, Wellington Phoenix 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Auckland FC to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Auckland FC 53%, the draw 24% and Wellington Phoenix 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Auckland FC took 10 points from their last 5 games and Wellington Phoenix took 9 from 5. Auckland FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Auckland FC won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Wellington Phoenix won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Auckland FC score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Wellington Phoenix score 1.5 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Auckland FC games and 13 of Wellington Phoenix games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Auckland FC won 3 and Wellington Phoenix won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Wellington Phoenix 0, Auckland FC 5.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aucklandrecent form+3%
Auckland form D W L W WWellington form D W L W LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix: Auckland FC are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Auckland FC host Wellington Phoenix in the A-League on Sat 7 Nov, 04:00 at Go Media Stadium. Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix is Auckland FC to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Auckland FC form

Auckland FC have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Wellington Phoenix form

Wellington Phoenix have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Auckland FC won 3, Wellington Phoenix won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Wellington Phoenix 0, Auckland FC 5.

Our call

We expect Auckland FC to score about 1.8 goals and Wellington Phoenix about 1.1. That points to Auckland FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Auckland FC to win and Over 2.5 at 2.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AucklandWellington
Games played2020
Wins79
Draws84
Losses57
Goals scored3530
Goals conceded2635
Scored per game1.81.5
Conceded per game1.31.8
Home record4W 5D 2L5W 2D 3L
Away record3W 3D 3L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals57%1.75
Over 3.5 goals35%2.89
Both teams to score58%1.73
Auckland FC or Draw77%1.30
Wellington Phoenix or Draw47%2.12
Auckland FC to win and Over 2.536%2.82
Wellington Phoenix to win and Over 2.514%6.94
Auckland FC clean sheet32%3.13
Wellington Phoenix clean sheet16%6.23

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.8%
1-08.8%
2-08.6%
1-26.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix?

Our prediction for Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix is Auckland FC to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Auckland FC to score 1.8 goals and Wellington Phoenix 1.1.

Will both teams score in Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Auckland FC last 20 games and 11 of Wellington Phoenix last 20.

How are Auckland FC playing?

Auckland FC have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Wellington Phoenix playing?

Wellington Phoenix have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Auckland FC and Wellington Phoenix last met?

It ended Wellington Phoenix 0, Auckland FC 5. In the last 3 meetings Auckland FC won 3 and Wellington Phoenix won 0.

What is the best bet for Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Auckland against Wellington. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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