Predictions › United States › Austin FC vs Portland Timbers

MLSSat 7 Nov, 19:00 United States time

Austin FC vs Portland Timbers prediction

Q2 Stadium

Austin FCHome

1.50 : 1.57

expected goals

Portland TimbersAway

36%Austin

25%Draw

39%Portland

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

-455

Quick answer

Our prediction for Austin FC vs Portland Timbers is Portland Timbers to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -455.

Prediction: Portland Timbers to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Austin FC 1.5, Portland Timbers 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at -455
Both teams to score: 62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price -4552 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Portland Timbers to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price +2861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Austin FC 36%, the draw 25% and Portland Timbers 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Austin FC took 3 points from their last 5 games and Portland Timbers took 8 from 5. Portland Timbers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Austin FC won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Portland Timbers won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Austin FC score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. Portland Timbers score 1.8 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Austin FC games and 15 of Portland Timbers games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Austin FC won 1 and Portland Timbers won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Portland Timbers 1, Austin FC 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Austinrecent form-3%
Austinrest between games-5%
Portlandrest between games-5%

Austin form D W L L LPortland form D W D L DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Austin FC vs Portland Timbers: Portland Timbers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Austin FC host Portland Timbers in the MLS on Sat 7 Nov, 19:00 at Q2 Stadium. Our prediction for Austin FC vs Portland Timbers is Portland Timbers to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -455.

Austin FC form

Austin FC have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Portland Timbers form

Portland Timbers have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Austin FC won 1, Portland Timbers won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Portland Timbers 1, Austin FC 2.

Our call

We expect Austin FC to score about 1.5 goals and Portland Timbers about 1.6. That points to Portland Timbers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -455. Our bold bet is Portland Timbers to win and Over 2.5 at +286.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Austin	Portland
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	7
Draws	5	5
Losses	10	8
Goals scored	23	36
Goals conceded	38	37
Scored per game	1.1	1.8
Conceded per game	1.9	1.9
Home record	1W 4D 5L	5W 3D 3L
Away record	4W 1D 5L	2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	5%	5%
Both teams scored	75%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	-448
Over 2.5 goals	59%	-145
Over 3.5 goals	37%	+172
Both teams to score	62%	-164
Austin FC or Draw	61%	-158
Portland Timbers or Draw	64%	-179
Austin FC to win and Over 2.5	24%	+311
Portland Timbers to win and Over 2.5	26%	+278
Austin FC clean sheet	21%	+380
Portland Timbers clean sheet	22%	+349

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%

1-28.6%

2-18.2%

0-16.6%

2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Austin FC vs Portland Timbers?

Our prediction for Austin FC vs Portland Timbers is Portland Timbers to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -455.

What is the score prediction for Austin FC vs Portland Timbers?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Austin FC to score 1.5 goals and Portland Timbers 1.6.

Will both teams score in Austin FC vs Portland Timbers?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Austin FC last 20 games and 16 of Portland Timbers last 20.

How are Austin FC playing?

How are Portland Timbers playing?

What happened when Austin FC and Portland Timbers last met?

It ended Portland Timbers 1, Austin FC 2. In the last 1 meeting Austin FC won 1 and Portland Timbers won 0.

What is the best bet for Austin FC vs Portland Timbers?

Over 1.5 goals at -455, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Austin against Portland. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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