EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Austria › Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz
Austrian BundesligaSat 10 Oct, 17:30 Austria time

Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz prediction

Generali-Arena

Austria ViennaHome
1.26 : 1.63
expected goals
SK Sturm GrazAway
29%Vienna
26%Draw
45%Sturm Graz
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
SK Sturm Graz to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Austria Vienna 1.3, SK Sturm Graz 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Austria Vienna 29%, the draw 26% and SK Sturm Graz 45%. The bookmakers agree and make SK Sturm Graz the favourite at 2.15.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Austria Vienna took 7 points from their last 5 games and SK Sturm Graz took 5 from 5. Austria Vienna come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Austria Vienna won 2 of their last 9 games at home. SK Sturm Graz won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Austria Vienna score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. SK Sturm Graz score 1.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Austria Vienna games and 6 of SK Sturm Graz games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Austria Vienna won 2 and SK Sturm Graz won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended SK Sturm Graz 1, Austria Vienna 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Viennarecent form-1%
  • Sturm Grazrecent form-1%
Vienna form D W L L DSturm Graz form L D W L DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz: SK Sturm Graz are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Austria Vienna host SK Sturm Graz in the Austrian Bundesliga on Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 at Generali-Arena. Our prediction for Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Austria Vienna form

Austria Vienna have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

SK Sturm Graz form

SK Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 10 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Austria Vienna won 2, SK Sturm Graz won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished SK Sturm Graz 1, Austria Vienna 1.

Our call

We expect Austria Vienna to score about 1.3 goals and SK Sturm Graz about 1.6. That points to SK Sturm Graz to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5 at 3.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ViennaSturm Graz
Games played2020
Wins68
Draws410
Losses102
Goals scored2330
Goals conceded3720
Scored per game1.11.5
Conceded per game1.91.0
Home record2W 2D 5L4W 6D 0L
Away record4W 2D 5L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets25%35%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Austria Vienna to win28%3.583.05-14.8%
A Draw25%3.993.45-13.5%
SK Sturm Graz to win42%2.362.15-8.8%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.951.69-13.5%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.352.00-14.9%
Austria Vienna +0.552%1.921.63-15.3%
SK Sturm Graz -0.542%2.402.05-14.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.82
Over 3.5 goals33%3.06
Both teams to score58%1.72
Austria Vienna or Draw55%1.83
SK Sturm Graz or Draw71%1.40
Austria Vienna to win and Over 2.518%5.53
SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.530%3.38
Austria Vienna clean sheet20%5.09
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet29%3.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
1-29.3%
0-18.4%
0-27.4%
2-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

Our prediction for Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz is SK Sturm Graz to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Austria Vienna to score 1.3 goals and SK Sturm Graz 1.6.

Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Austria Vienna last 20 games and 12 of SK Sturm Graz last 20.

How are Austria Vienna playing?

Austria Vienna have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are SK Sturm Graz playing?

SK Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 10 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Austria Vienna and SK Sturm Graz last met?

It ended SK Sturm Graz 1, Austria Vienna 1. In the last 4 meetings Austria Vienna won 2 and SK Sturm Graz won 1.

What is the best bet for Austria Vienna vs SK Sturm Graz?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Vienna against Sturm Graz. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.