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Predictions › Japan › Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama
J1 LeagueSat 10 Oct, 06:00 Japan time

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama prediction

Best Denki Stadium

Avispa FukuokaHome
1.17 : 1.61
expected goals
Fagiano OkayamaAway
27%A Fukuoka
26%Draw
47%Okayama
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Fagiano Okayama to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Avispa Fukuoka 1.2, Fagiano Okayama 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Avispa Fukuoka 27%, the draw 26% and Fagiano Okayama 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Avispa Fukuoka took 1 point from their last 5 games and Fagiano Okayama took 9 from 5. Fagiano Okayama come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Avispa Fukuoka won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Fagiano Okayama won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Avispa Fukuoka score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.3. Fagiano Okayama score 1.5 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Avispa Fukuoka games and 12 of Fagiano Okayama games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Avispa Fukuoka won 0 and Fagiano Okayama won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Fagiano Okayama 2, Avispa Fukuoka 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • A Fukuokarecent form-6%
  • Okayamarecent form+1%
A Fukuoka form L L D L LOkayama form L W W W LHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama: Fagiano Okayama are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Avispa Fukuoka host Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League on Sat 10 Oct, 06:00 at Best Denki Stadium. Our prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Avispa Fukuoka form

Avispa Fukuoka have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Fagiano Okayama form

Fagiano Okayama have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Avispa Fukuoka won 0, Fagiano Okayama won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Fagiano Okayama 2, Avispa Fukuoka 0.

Our call

We expect Avispa Fukuoka to score about 1.2 goals and Fagiano Okayama about 1.6. That points to Fagiano Okayama to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5 at 3.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

A FukuokaOkayama
Games played2020
Wins59
Draws74
Losses87
Goals scored2430
Goals conceded2628
Scored per game1.21.5
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record2W 4D 4L5W 2D 3L
Away record3W 3D 4L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals30%3.29
Both teams to score56%1.79
Avispa Fukuoka or Draw53%1.89
Fagiano Okayama or Draw73%1.37
Avispa Fukuoka to win and Over 2.516%6.19
Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.530%3.38
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet20%5.01
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet31%3.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-29.4%
0-19.3%
0-28.1%
0-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Our prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Avispa Fukuoka to score 1.2 goals and Fagiano Okayama 1.6.

Will both teams score in Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Avispa Fukuoka last 20 games and 13 of Fagiano Okayama last 20.

How are Avispa Fukuoka playing?

Avispa Fukuoka have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Fagiano Okayama playing?

Fagiano Okayama have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama last met?

It ended Fagiano Okayama 2, Avispa Fukuoka 0. In the last 2 meetings Avispa Fukuoka won 0 and Fagiano Okayama won 1.

What is the best bet for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in A Fukuoka against Okayama. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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