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Predictions › Japan › Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 LeagueSat 7 Nov, 06:00 Japan time

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki prediction

Best Denki Stadium

Avispa FukuokaHome
1.34 : 1.03
expected goals
V-Varen NagasakiAway
43%A Fukuoka
29%Draw
28%V-Varen
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Avispa Fukuoka to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Avispa Fukuoka to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Avispa Fukuoka 1.3, V-Varen Nagasaki 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.311 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Avispa Fukuoka 43%, the draw 29% and V-Varen Nagasaki 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Avispa Fukuoka took 3 points from their last 5 games and V-Varen Nagasaki took 5 from 5. V-Varen Nagasaki come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Avispa Fukuoka won 2 of their last 11 games at home. V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Avispa Fukuoka score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. V-Varen Nagasaki score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Avispa Fukuoka games and 11 of V-Varen Nagasaki games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Avispa Fukuoka won 1 and V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Avispa Fukuoka 1, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • A Fukuokarecent form-3%
A Fukuoka form D L L W LV-Varen form D W L D DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki: Avispa Fukuoka shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Avispa Fukuoka host V-Varen Nagasaki in the J1 League on Sat 7 Nov, 06:00 at Best Denki Stadium. Our prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Avispa Fukuoka to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Avispa Fukuoka form

Avispa Fukuoka have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

V-Varen Nagasaki form

V-Varen Nagasaki have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Avispa Fukuoka won 1, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Avispa Fukuoka 1, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.

Our call

We expect Avispa Fukuoka to score about 1.3 goals and V-Varen Nagasaki about 1.0. That points to Avispa Fukuoka to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.31.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

A FukuokaV-Varen
Games played2020
Wins37
Draws64
Losses119
Goals scored2226
Goals conceded3229
Scored per game1.11.3
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record2W 4D 5L5W 3D 2L
Away record1W 2D 6L2W 1D 7L
Clean sheets5%20%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.44
Over 2.5 goals42%2.37
Over 3.5 goals22%4.65
Both teams to score48%2.07
Avispa Fukuoka or Draw72%1.39
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw57%1.75
Avispa Fukuoka to win and Over 2.523%4.39
V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.514%7.00
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet36%2.82
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet26%3.80

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
1-011.7%
0-010.1%
0-18.9%
2-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Our prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki is Avispa Fukuoka to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Avispa Fukuoka to score 1.3 goals and V-Varen Nagasaki 1.0.

Will both teams score in Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Avispa Fukuoka last 20 games and 11 of V-Varen Nagasaki last 20.

How are Avispa Fukuoka playing?

Avispa Fukuoka have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are V-Varen Nagasaki playing?

V-Varen Nagasaki have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Avispa Fukuoka and V-Varen Nagasaki last met?

It ended Avispa Fukuoka 1, V-Varen Nagasaki 0. In the last 2 meetings Avispa Fukuoka won 1 and V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.

What is the best bet for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in A Fukuoka against V-Varen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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