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Predictions › Netherlands › AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen
EredivisieSun 8 Nov, 15:45 Netherlands time

AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen prediction

AFAS Stadion

AZ AlkmaarHome
1.84 : 1.46
expected goals
FC GroningenAway
46%AZ Alkmaar
24%Draw
30%FC Groningen
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
AZ Alkmaar to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AZ Alkmaar 1.8, FC Groningen 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.041 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AZ Alkmaar 46%, the draw 24% and FC Groningen 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AZ Alkmaar took 7 points from their last 5 games and FC Groningen took 8 from 5. FC Groningen come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AZ Alkmaar won 5 of their last 10 games at home. FC Groningen won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AZ Alkmaar score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. FC Groningen score 2.0 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AZ Alkmaar games and 15 of FC Groningen games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, AZ Alkmaar won 0 and FC Groningen won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended FC Groningen 3, AZ Alkmaar 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • AZ Alkmaarrecent form+1%
  • FC Groningenrecent form+1%
AZ Alkmaar form D W D W LFC Groningen form D L W W DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen: AZ Alkmaar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AZ Alkmaar host FC Groningen in the Eredivisie on Sun 8 Nov, 15:45 at AFAS Stadion. Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

AZ Alkmaar form

AZ Alkmaar have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

FC Groningen form

FC Groningen have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. AZ Alkmaar won 0, FC Groningen won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished FC Groningen 3, AZ Alkmaar 0.

Our call

We expect AZ Alkmaar to score about 1.8 goals and FC Groningen about 1.5. That points to AZ Alkmaar to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5 at 3.04.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AZ AlkmaarFC Groningen
Games played2020
Wins99
Draws75
Losses46
Goals scored3740
Goals conceded2533
Scored per game1.92.0
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record5W 4D 1L5W 2D 3L
Away record4W 3D 3L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals55%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.56
Over 3.5 goals42%2.38
Both teams to score65%1.53
AZ Alkmaar or Draw70%1.43
FC Groningen or Draw54%1.86
AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.534%2.97
FC Groningen to win and Over 2.521%4.67
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet23%4.31
FC Groningen clean sheet16%6.31

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%
2-19.1%
1-27.2%
2-26.7%
2-06.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect AZ Alkmaar to score 1.8 goals and FC Groningen 1.5.

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of AZ Alkmaar last 20 games and 15 of FC Groningen last 20.

How are AZ Alkmaar playing?

AZ Alkmaar have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

How are FC Groningen playing?

FC Groningen have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when AZ Alkmaar and FC Groningen last met?

It ended FC Groningen 3, AZ Alkmaar 0. In the last 1 meeting AZ Alkmaar won 0 and FC Groningen won 1.

What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AZ Alkmaar against FC Groningen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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