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Predictions › Netherlands › AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente
EredivisieSun 25 Oct, 19:00 Netherlands time

AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente prediction

AFAS Stadion

AZ AlkmaarHome
1.68 : 1.47
expected goals
FC TwenteAway
42%AZ Alkmaar
25%Draw
33%FC Twente
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
AZ Alkmaar to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AZ Alkmaar 1.7, FC Twente 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AZ Alkmaar 42%, the draw 25% and FC Twente 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AZ Alkmaar took 7 points from their last 5 games and FC Twente took 13 from 5. FC Twente come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 10 games at home. FC Twente won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AZ Alkmaar score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.2. FC Twente score 1.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AZ Alkmaar games and 12 of FC Twente games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 0 and FC Twente won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended AZ Alkmaar 2, FC Twente 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • AZ Alkmaarrecent form-1%
  • FC Twenterecent form+4%
  • AZ Alkmaarrest between games-5%
  • FC Twenterest between games-5%
AZ Alkmaar form D L W L DFC Twente form D D W W WHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente: AZ Alkmaar shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AZ Alkmaar host FC Twente in the Eredivisie on Sun 25 Oct, 19:00 at AFAS Stadion. Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

AZ Alkmaar form

AZ Alkmaar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

FC Twente form

FC Twente have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AZ Alkmaar won 0, FC Twente won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AZ Alkmaar 2, FC Twente 2.

Our call

We expect AZ Alkmaar to score about 1.7 goals and FC Twente about 1.5. That points to AZ Alkmaar to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5 at 3.58.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AZ AlkmaarFC Twente
Games played2020
Wins1013
Draws64
Losses43
Goals scored3739
Goals conceded2423
Scored per game1.91.9
Conceded per game1.21.1
Home record6W 4D 0L9W 1D 1L
Away record4W 2D 4L4W 3D 2L
Clean sheets35%25%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.64
Over 3.5 goals39%2.58
Both teams to score63%1.58
AZ Alkmaar or Draw67%1.49
FC Twente or Draw58%1.73
AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.530%3.38
FC Twente to win and Over 2.523%4.39
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet23%4.35
FC Twente clean sheet19%5.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%
2-18.9%
1-27.8%
1-06.6%
2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect AZ Alkmaar to score 1.7 goals and FC Twente 1.5.

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of AZ Alkmaar last 20 games and 13 of FC Twente last 20.

How are AZ Alkmaar playing?

AZ Alkmaar have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are FC Twente playing?

FC Twente have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when AZ Alkmaar and FC Twente last met?

It ended AZ Alkmaar 2, FC Twente 2. In the last 2 meetings AZ Alkmaar won 0 and FC Twente won 1.

What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AZ Alkmaar against FC Twente. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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