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Predictions › Europa League › AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er
Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er prediction

AFAS Stadion

AZ AlkmaarHome
2.57 : 0.98
expected goals
Hapoel Be'erAway
71%AZ Alkmaar
17%Draw
12%Hapoel Be'er
Eagle safe pickAZ Alkmaar to win
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is AZ Alkmaar to win at 1.31.

Prediction
AZ Alkmaar to win
Chance
71%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
AZ Alkmaar 2.6, Hapoel Be'er 1.0
Best bet
AZ Alkmaar to win at 1.31
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

AZ Alkmaar to win
74% chancePrice 1.311 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AZ Alkmaar to win and both score
35% chanceFair price 2.851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AZ Alkmaar 71%, the draw 17% and Hapoel Be'er 12%. The bookmakers agree and make AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 1.31.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AZ Alkmaar took 10 points from their last 5 games and Hapoel Be'er took 1 from 1. AZ Alkmaar come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    AZ Alkmaar score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.1. Hapoel Be'er score 0.0 and let in 0.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of AZ Alkmaar games and 0 of Hapoel Be'er games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    AZ Alkmaar to win has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • AZ Alkmaarrecent form+3%
  • Hapoel Be'errecent form+3%
AZ Alkmaar form W L D W WHapoel Be'er form D L W W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er: AZ Alkmaar are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Be'er in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at AFAS Stadion. Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is AZ Alkmaar to win at 1.31.

AZ Alkmaar form

AZ Alkmaar have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Hapoel Be'er form

Hapoel Be'er have 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses in their last 1 games, with 0 goals scored and 0 conceded. Their last 1 results read D, newest first.

Our call

We expect AZ Alkmaar to score about 2.6 goals and Hapoel Be'er about 1.0. That points to AZ Alkmaar to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is AZ Alkmaar to win at 1.31. Our bold bet is AZ Alkmaar to win and both score at 2.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AZ AlkmaarHapoel Be'er
Games played201
Wins110
Draws61
Losses30
Goals scored410
Goals conceded220
Scored per game2.00.0
Conceded per game1.10.0
Home record7W 4D 0L0W 1D 0L
Away record4W 2D 3Ln/a
Clean sheets40%100%
Both teams scored45%0%
Over 2.5 goals60%0%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AZ Alkmaar to win74%1.341.31-2.3%
A Draw17%5.955.50-7.6%
Hapoel Be'er to win10%9.808.00-18.4%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.422.20-9.2%
Under 3.5 goals53%1.881.63-13.5%
AZ Alkmaar -1.548%2.091.77-15.3%
Hapoel Be'er +1.547%2.141.83-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.14
Over 2.5 goals69%1.45
Over 3.5 goals47%2.11
Both teams to score58%1.72
AZ Alkmaar or Draw88%1.13
Hapoel Be'er or Draw29%3.46
AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.555%1.83
Hapoel Be'er to win and Over 2.58%12.39
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet37%2.67
Hapoel Be'er clean sheet8%13.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-09.5%
2-19.3%
3-08.1%
3-18.0%
1-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er is AZ Alkmaar to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is AZ Alkmaar to win at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 3-0. We expect AZ Alkmaar to score 2.6 goals and Hapoel Be'er 1.0.

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of AZ Alkmaar last 20 games and 0 of Hapoel Be'er last 1.

How are AZ Alkmaar playing?

AZ Alkmaar have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Hapoel Be'er playing?

Hapoel Be'er have 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses in their last 1 games, with 0 goals scored and 0 conceded. Their last 1 results read D, newest first.

What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er?

AZ Alkmaar to win at 1.31, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AZ Alkmaar against Hapoel Be'er. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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